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To: Simon who wrote (16745)	10/13/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: John Hunt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Bin Laden Likely to Strike Soon in Asia stratfor.com << Bin Laden has evaluated the damage done to his network by U.S. intelligence efforts, and is ready for another action. Secretary of Defense William Cohen announced October 10 that a "number of terrorist attacks" have been planned against U.S. interests abroad, and that U.S. embassies around the world will remain on alert. We do not doubt this, and add that we believe the odds of that action taking place in Asia are high. The threat of terrorist action against U.S. interests in the Philippines, where Bin Laden already had an established network, is growing daily. Danger to U.S. interests in Malaysia, Indonesia, and other Southeast Asian nations with sizeable Moslem populations will grow as the political situation in those countries deteriorates and Bin Laden pushes forward with recruiting among those countries' disaffected Moslem organizations. One factor that could affect the timetable of Bin Laden's activities is the possibility that he may have worn out his welcome in Afghanistan. The Taleban have offered to try Bin Laden for the bombing of the Khobar Towers in Dhahran, provided families of the Saudi victims request it. This overture is an attempt to patch up relations with Riyadh, which recently severed diplomatic ties with the Taleban. Pakistan, too, is feeling pressure to do something about both Bin Laden and the Taleban. While Islamabad helped found and still sponsors the Taleban, there is a growing threat of a Taleban-inspired fundamentalist uprising in Pakistan. Finally, the U.S. has announced that more missile strikes may be forthcoming against Bin Laden. Bin Laden's response to this pressure is unclear. He may attempt to find alternative sanctuary, which could delay his plans somewhat. Or, feeling that there is no escape, he may attempt to launch a new campaign as soon as possible. Either way, U.S. businesses in Asia, and particularly in the Philippines, should remain on heightened alert and take every possible security measure for the forseeable future. >>