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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (4711)	10/13/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 9256

"Anybody want to guess whether we will be pleased or cursed by what they say?" My superficial, probably not very surprising WAG: Pleased. But also cursed. Pleased because inventories will be down and at reasonable levels, ASPs will still be declining (duh), but they are starting to adjust to this fierce environment, so expenses will be more in line with revenue. SEG and QNTM will report earnings (not including special gains, charge), WDC a loss again. They will confirm a seasonal pickup in demand, decent cash flow, and will be cautiously optimistic that "the worst is behind us". Cursed because the stocks will still sell off, or not go anywhere. End of the week, QNTM to be very close to 15, SEG at 23-24, WDC below 8. Next week, perhaps some gentle upward movement, especially for SEG if they have actually regained a little market share on the high end, and QNTM if DLT actually shows the 15% growth that they have suggested in the past. SEG's announcement of their AIT Sidewinder drive shows how they still haven't decided how to attack that market, with AIT or LTO. They don't seem like much of a threat to me, and would probably better off to just get out of that niche, as QNTM would be to get entirely out of the heads business (and perhaps the high end business as well). But these are stubborn folk, who for some reason still think that they have to be everywhere.