To: Zoltan! who wrote (9210 ) 10/13/1998 3:06:00 PM From: Who, me? Respond to of 67261
The great divide You think partisan politics is ugly? Just wait until after election day. By Jay Severin MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR Oct. 12 — This fight is between Democrats and Republicans — but the epic war is between two Americas: the one that votes versus the one that does not. We may awaken in three weeks' time to the majority of American voters adamantly committed to removing Bill Clinton, but the majority of the general public adamantly committed to keeping him. JUST THREE WEEKS from this historic election, voters and non-voters share the same citizenship but more than ever before, live in two different worlds. They speak different languages. Their definitions of right and wrong, their perceptions of reality itself, are profoundly split. In terms of politics, the key facts are these: Only half of us eligible to vote do vote. The opinions of those of us who do vote are starkly different from those of us who don't. The attitudes of voters, Democrats as well as Republicans, are more conservative than the public at large. Since only voters decide elections, politicians pay little attention to the opinions of non-voters. Consider the latest evidence: Monday's Newsweek poll reports that a scant 11 percent of the general public want the impeachment inquiry to continue. But among likely voters, the impeachment dynamic changes dramatically: 33 percent of those voters say they are more likely to cast their ballot for a candidate who supports impeachment — only 17 percent prefer the anti-impeachment candidate. And the newest Opinion Dynamics poll of likely voters puts the president's job performance at only 42 percent. This explains how and why Bill Clinton can show an approval rating in excess of 50 percent among the general public, while among voters, his party's Congressional candidates are running behind Republicans across the country. It likewise explains how and why Congress is pursuing impeachment hearings: it is evidently a political winner. But this phenomenal political divide raises the prospect of a troubling election “day after” scenario that is far more contentious than party politics: suppose that, on Nov. 3, Voting America elects a lot of anti-Clinton, pro-impeachment members of Congress — but Non-voting America is still broadly pro-Clinton, opposing impeachment? If the impeachment of the president were to proceed under such circumstances, (as almost certainly it would) that will essentially certify that some opinions count more than others. While in reality this is not anything new, it will be monumentally controversial: the hard fact of our political life is that Voting America is largely white, middle-class and suburban. Non-Voting America largely minority, poor, urban. Thus, we may awaken in three weeks' time to the majority of American voters adamantly committed to removing Bill Clinton, but the majority of the general public adamantly committed to keeping him. That would mean a bloody battle, the fault lines of which might plausibly, even unavoidably, be defined by race, class, and geography — an uncivil civil war. Compared to that potential curse, partisan politics will seem a quaint blessing. msnbc.com