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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (31469)	10/13/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Respond to of 94695

I believe tomorrow needs to continue a chain of significantly lower closes, and I have to believe it will. The critical area to take out is 980 on the Dec S&P futures (about 973 SPX). If that number gives way, the scenario of a significant decline receives strong confirmation. The C wave I was looking for to begin from last night's globex low has made an effort, but the effort has been very poor, except for the 1st wave of C. 1 of C jetted off last night's lows of 996 on globex, and fired up to 1013.5 within a couple hours. I have noticed that when wave 1 of C is especially strong, the remainder of C is a big disappointment, with 5 of C being virtually nonexistant. When this happens, it's also usually a very ominous sign as well. We had a small wave 3 of C rally late in the day, but afterwards, Pfizer announced poor earnings, which forced the futures BELOW where C began (996). Globex may try to hold up through early tomorrow morning (5am est), but then, it could break down hard, especially if Europe does as well. 980 is the key futures number to watch to monitor progress though. Regards, David P.S. I believe Intel is sorely overvalued at 83.5, even if they did report 89c per share. I estimate they'll earn no more than 3.50 next year, fairly flat with this year. Being a cyclical stock, and no longer a true blue growth stock, I feel a forward p/e of 15 would be awfully generous. I believe the run Intel just had from the high 60's to mid 80's was more than enough buying the rumor to allow for some substantial selling of the news for the upcoming week, especially with a week/crashing market.