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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (5961)	10/13/1998 5:52:00 PM
From: Ann Corrigan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Thread, Analyst from Value Line on CNBC just gave his opinion that this is probably a good time to buy PFE on the cheap. Ann

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (5961)	10/13/1998 6:01:00 PM
From: T. Reilly	Respond to of 9523

News: Pfizer comfortable with 98 yr earns of $1.95-2.00 on yahoo news. I hope i am missing something but i thought their year estimates were in the range of $2.12. we are going to get smacked over the next few days, it will be a while before we see 100 again

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (5961)	10/14/1998 7:41:00 PM
From: TokyoMex	Respond to of 9523

Top Stories: Pfizer's Stock Pops, but Flaws Show in Its Earnings Report By Jesse Eisinger Senior Writer 10/14/98 6:19 PM ET Pfizer's (PFE:NYSE) third-quarter earnings looked lame, but the company's stock went up. How is this explained? Well, there's this long river in Africa ... Pfizer reported net income from continuing operations of $667 million, or 51 cents a share, compared with year-earlier earnings of $579 million, or 45 cents a share. But Pfizer fell short of the First Call consensus estimate of 56 cents. Revenue climbed 21% to $3.33 billion from $2.74 billion. The bulls minimized the weak quarter, noting that Pfizer has the strongest sales force in the drug group and a solid product pipeline. Pfizer sold its medical technologies group during the quarter, which cut earnings as much as 2 cents a share, says Jim Flynn, an analyst at ING Barings Furman Selz, which has not done any underwriting for Pfizer. Sales of drugs, its most profitable segment, rose more, 26%. Sales of Norvasc, the heart drug, rose 26%. Those of Zoloft, the antidepressant, rose 25%, Zyrtec, Pfizer's answer to Schering-Plough's (SGP:NYSE) Claritin, jumped 67%. Sales of Zithromax, an antibiotic, lifted 69%. The bad news: Operating margins fell by a percentage point from year-ago levels selling, general and administrative expenses rose. Those costs rose 2% on aggressive sales-force increases for Celebra, the would-be blockbuster superaspirin that Monsanto (MTC:NYSE) will co-market. Sales of the impotence drug Viagra fell to $141 million in the quarter from $409 million in the second quarter. Viagra, according to one biotech hedge fund manager who has no position in the stock, is not going to be the driver anymore. This is a fundamental change from just six months ago. Moreover, Flynn says that the sales growth was higher than the prescription growth, which "indicates that many products may have been oversold to wholesalers during the quarter." Pfizer's reduced its earnings guidance for the year. It now expects to earn $1.95 to $2 a share for 1998. The First Call consensus for 1999 is $2.60. Flynn and Merrill Lynch expect the company to earn $2.50 a share. Flynn cut his five-year growth rate to 18% from 20%. Still gonna pay 46 times 1998 earnings? Apparently the market is -- for now. The stock rose 8 1/2 to close at 96 on heavy volume, though it rose only 1/4 above its New York close yesterday. The stock closed at 95 3/4 yesterday before Pfizer reported weak earnings and aftermarket selling dropped the shares to 87 1/2. One money manager who is long the stock emails that, "Fourth quarter should be big due to Viagra Europe launches, big [cholesterol-lowering drug] Lipitor numbers, sequentially flattish SG&A since the new sales force is pretty much in place. Plus, company is buying back stock like crazy, I would think." A West Coast short-seller rebuts, "Of the $141 million in Q3 [Viagra] sales, PFE management disclosed that $26 million to Europe. That means domestic down to $115 million. If first quarter domestic was $300 million and second quarter was $115 million, doesn't this signal a downward spiral that is going to see fourth quarter under third quarter (given the continued drop in Rx)? Even if it stabilizes at current levels, the $3 billion to $4 billion numbers for Viagra have to be cut drastically because there is nothing to drive further usage domestically and internationally currency devaluation/current product availability will put a lid on sales. I'd be willing to bet the Viagra sales in Q4 come in under $200 million. "By the way, I don't buy the story of that the cost of the Celebra sales force was totally built into Q3. Expect further SG&A costs in Q4."