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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j_b who wrote (2137)	10/13/1998 7:23:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

To the thread: I smell discussion on the thread that reminds me of actions I've messed with and gotten stung by...sword catching. Notice how sebl stock has always moved up before earnings blowouts? Why is it acting like this, especially during the users conference and analysts meeting? PSFT? c'mon why try buying a company in a fundamentally maturing segment? PSFT feels very dangerous and if what I think is coming, it'll probably be a great short on a dead cat bounce. Steve, i have to discourage you again from promoting Vantive. Most of the returns in a stock can be made well after there is AMPLE evidence of a recovery. If Vantive has a good quarter and a great outlook (doubtful but possible) I guarantee an investor can make 90% of the return in a one year time frame for 1/3 the risk by waiting until after the results are published. A comment on street sentiment: Institutional investors think that the back office vendors will have an easy time creating an integrated front office solution that will crush the CIS folks. why, it's just a database engine with a name and address list isn't it? They are wrong, but it may take several quarters of good results from the front office folks to make the institutional lemmings appreciate how mission critical and complex front office is. TD

To: j_b who wrote (2137)	10/13/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Respond to of 6974

j_b, my earlier comment about psft not acquiring one of these companies wasn't necessarily directed toward sebl...My point was that I felt that it might be a mistake for psft because the front office space represents increased revenue (i.e. license fee growth) opportunities. I don't see these partnerships providing the same benefit. <<but I would think the potential customers of a front-end product would think twice about purchasing a Siebel product if it was too tightly associated with one back office vendor>> Not sure I agree with this. Even SAP has finally realized the importance of products that can function on a standalone basis. I don't think it's ever been an issue for PSFT.

To: j_b who wrote (2137)	10/14/1998 1:02:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 6974

>>but I would think the potential customers of a front-end product would think twice about purchasing a Siebel product if it was too tightly associated with one back office vendor << Very recently one of the ERP companies, PeopleSoft I think, took on Siebel in their partnership program. At the time Vantive (I think) was already a partner to the same extent, but Vantive had a seat on PeopleSoft's board. Because that didn't look good, that seat was vacated and replaced by a Compaq (I think) exec. If I didn't get all the names right, the concept of what happened is accurate. I spent a very short time trying to find the details to no avail. --Mike Buckley