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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teddy who wrote (30682)	10/13/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Teddy: Thanks for posting that artice! Yes the technical action is horrible and the stocks look they are about to get hit hard. But I will be very surprised if we do not see an explosive rally off a panic bottom within the next few weeks.

To: Teddy who wrote (30682)	10/13/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 95453

Teddy...you still long the telecoms? Seems to me that was your fave sector upon leaving the drillers...

To: Teddy who wrote (30682)	10/14/1998 10:08:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

? "Teddy" ...... <<Hey Slider, put a sock in it dude, ...>> ...who is ''Teddy'' ? .....Teddy - whomever you are... This is NOT an easy sector to ''trade'' here; however - no one in their right mind; with a mid- long term timeframe (6-12-18 mos being mid term/3+ years long term) is going to go wrong buying FLC @ $8, RIG @ $26, WFT @ $16, GLBL @ $6, FGII @ $10, VTS @ $10 or RON @ $25. I am comfortable that these stocks at these prices will both outperform the overall market for the next 3+ years, but also have the potential for outstanding returns - some at 3-4-5 times their current prices over 2-3 years. I would think that those stocks who have taken their ''hits'' off earnings disappointments and downgrades and have had major volume selling, indicative of tax loss selling like GLBL & VRC can be bought here before years end.. As far as waiting untill years end - I have no problem with that, as we face Clintons Impeachment, Hedge Fund headlines, a Fed rate cut(s) ?, DOW stocks disappointing earnings etc... Teddy; I don't know you, of you; or what your point is ? ... have a nice day. :) and thanks for your altruism for us poor starving bottom fishers buying FGII @ $10, FLC @ $8, VTS @ $10 etc... I think we are seeing a retest of the Sept 1st lows; a double bottom and will see a corresponding rally, just like we saw in mid-September of 20-30-50% in some issues - however I will and would suggest taking some profits off the table; (watching crude prices & OPEC) as we slowly trade upwards as crude rises. PS - I'm sure your learning some great ''BUFFET-ESQUE" investing techniques over on the ''other'' thread - like shorting at the bottom, jumping on the gold train - right before its last stop etc.... Only one thing worse than buying high and selling low & that's shorting at the bottom.... good luck & PS - a hint here... Mature healthy adults, well grounded in reality, having normal levels of self esteem; do NOT refer to themselves in the ''third person'' when speaking or writing... (this cost Bob Dole an election and Donald (the Donald) Trump 2 divorces & mega $) ...<VBG> ie: <<Teddy is not trying to be smart or mean, he just doesn't like to see people lose money...>> ...as far as ''altruism'' - try the ''Peace Corps.'' PS - Unlike, the Dog - I do know where you can get a color glossy of the ''Mav'' - so be nice...

To: Teddy who wrote (30682)	10/16/1998 2:56:00 AM
From: Paul Angell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Teddy, I wrote this response on Tuesday, but was unable to send and I was out of town Wed and earlier today. You wrote: "There's no reason to buy another drilling stock until the end of the year" is probably not far off the mark, but you risk getting caught in the headlights when the momentum comes back. I have sold big names before every major dip in the last 3years and have had some 90% in cash to get back in and I know that in the majority of cases I should have simply held on because I had never had the balls to get back in at the right price. Not to mention the annual donation to the IRS for capital gains. Who knows exactly when recovery will start, but I know that the Joe Public wont touch OS until after it hits new highs. There is a lot more upside to crude price than most analysts can see. These are my personal opinions and from reading various research notes: 1: The beginnings of recovery in Asia. The current accounts for the majority of Asian nations went into positive last Q. They need export led recovery but there is a squeeze on credit (because of battered currency) so they cannot produce as much and export as quickly as they need to. This will hopefully change if Japan gets out of the sick bay, she will be the "bell cow" and strengthen the surrounding economies. 2: While crude stocks have mounted up, the holding volumes are down in absolute terms over the past few years. Refineries don't hold excess supplies in any great quantities. It does not pay to store it. This limitation on stock piles has led to previous upturns in price. A cold snap in US and Europe will cause a spike. 3. N. Sea new fields predicted to come on stream this year and early next year have suffered numerous setbacks, and serious cost overruns. This couple with winter storms could limit some supplies. 4. OPEC seems to be getting compliance and their declared goal is brent at 17 - 20/ bbl. 5. The potential for consolidation in land and shallow water drilling should create significant value. 6. Worldwide use of natural gas is on a long upward trend. Analysts are predicting that the price will de-couple soon from crude prices. This will create another upturns for land rigs. In North America there is going to be a shortage of gas over the next few years if there is no more drilling. 7. The majority of 1 billion barrel fields discovered this since 1930 are still producing. As mature fields they will not survive without well service work. Ref: Doug Vant's numerous posts on work necessary to maintain 70+ MMBPD. I say 70+ because my basic graphs tell me this is where it was in 1996 when Brent was $20 - $25. 8. This sector is in a long upward trend and this will hopefully turn out to be a temporary setback. That all said, I cannot blame you for playing the waiting game until next year if that is your choice. Paul.