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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Brew who wrote (15622)	10/14/1998 9:40:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

AV--PAintings would pale by comparisons to the masterpieces adorning the refrigerator door in my kitchen. Conference Calls for Today: AAPL, ALTR, AMCC, CAIR, CATP, CBR, CPQ, DCTM, DMIC, EGRP, JDEC,LLTC, LSI, MCHP, SEBL, SEG, VLSI. I am really looking closely at what I see for AAPL, CPQ, AMCC, EGRP, LLTC, LSI, SEG and MCHP. They are calling the INTC earnings a "blowout" if you can beleive that but have not upsided next years numbers yet. Interesting things for today: WJ-semi conductor sector of business is real weak still. Very few systems were ordered, while spares activity declined in Q3. WJ is not as strong financially and is showing some of this weakness in its present markets. Upside is (and the reason for discussing this stock) their wireless communications portion of the business. They may see a stronger Q4. A production ramp on two large wireless contracts indicates close to a 40% sequential revenue growth, for nice profitability. Their BE (breakeven) may have been lowered due to some of its restructuring and this may lead to profits, albeit small ($0.20-$0.30 per share) in 1999. Their is some upside to these numbers IF their semi business improves. WJ still has problems that it needs to address, mainly competing in two unconnected markets with inadequate resources. failed to address the issue pertaining to trying to compete in two disparate. Asset values bear watching since, to me, it seems the asset value exceeds the company's market value. However, not being an accountant or CFO, you never know if the assets are depreciating faster than the support being given to the stock via the share buyback program. We have some gurus in our midst that could actually give an intelligent commentary on this. Are you up to the challenge, my good friend from the UK??? Speaking of book value, IPEC has just blown my shorts off. They report on Oct 29th and Q1 estimates have been lowered to a $0.50 to $0.60 Loss. Estimates of a $1.70 loss for 1998 and only a possible $0.20 profit for all of 1999. BTW-The CFO resigned, which doesn't help matters either along with a diminshing backlog, it seems. Further downsizing could be lurking in the future. Stock might even bottom to its $5 book value. IF my numbers are correct, you are looking at a possible acquisition by a stronger company since IPEC offers one of the top enabling technologies WHEN the sector recovers and sub 0.25u processing goes mainstream. While I am still not advocating going shopping for stocks, a new company (to my universe that is), DSP Communications bears your attention. We could be seeing some incremental growth with returns of $0.75 to $1.00 for the 1998-2000 timeframe. not bad for a roughly $7 stock these days. This is a very long term view and is based on their conference call yesterday, to discuss recent earnings. Hey, I got nothing better to do these days<GGG>. DSP Comm. reported Q3:98 operating earnings of $0.21 versus Q3:97 earnings of $0.13, in line with consensus expectations. Year over year revenue growth looks good along with a healthy diversified chip set product portfolio. Thats the rub, though, we are talking about a chipset portfolio in a time where the IC industry is gasping for life's breath<GGG>. It should be noted that their customer base is expanding, which, if sanity returns to the market, should provide a basis for a higher valuation in its stock price. Downside is that this wireless chip set provider is reading about all its customer's profit warnings which could impact continued strong sales and revenues. Again, I am looking at this long term and am taking a conservative approach to accumulation even though DSPC may be able to dramatically benefit in the form of wireless communications opportunities and maintain a competitive position in the wireless chip set part of the business. Who knows, we might even see it as a key player. Again, this is all premised on the recovery in this sector. Andrew