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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (25295)	10/14/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Wildstar	Respond to of 70976

I know I shouldn't be spreading rumors but check this out: Message 6016825

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (25295)	10/14/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

eugene: re: "I am only heavily margined instead of insanely. Totally baS to the wall and on the edge." Speaking as someone with bullish credentials, since I own a lot of out-of-the-money amat leaps: 1. Based on the last 5 trading days, you picked an excellent buy-in point. If your intent was to trade, you should take profits now, and I congratulate you. If your intent was to invest, it's too early to declare victory. 2. lots of very smart people, including a couple of Nobel Prize winners in economics, have recently lost their shirts (and pants, and socks) through overleverage. Are you smarter than they are? 3. At the beginning of 1998, for 1998, earnings expectations were far too optimistic. It took until the third quarter for earnings estimates to become realistic. Now, we've got to repeat the whole process for 1999, because earnings estimates are still** totally unrealistic for 1999. (I'm speaking about the whole market. For the semi-equips, no one has any idea what earnings will be next year.) This convinces me that the (very recent) strength in the market is just a pause, and we probably have another step or two down. I think this will happen even if the Fed manages things expertly, and we don't have a recession. If the S&P hits 900 or 800, NVLS and AMAT will be in the teens. 4. Buying NVLS at 22 is not brain-dead. But being heavily margined, in any stock, given current conditions, is. Drug stocks, the last "safe haven" sector, have started to crack. Only utilities are really doing well. 5. Do you think that they called the bottom for the semi-equip cycle at the nvls cc? What makes you think the last few days gains won't be given back, just as quickly? 6. my nvls puts have already lost about 1/3 of their value. :-( 7. they still have 5 months till expiration. :-)