Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (16634)	10/14/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

This is the first I saw of it. I don't get the Favors report except when you post it. <g> It figures that he now is moving the date back since I am now in this bind with my puts. However according to my indicators, we are approaching some vital resistance areas on many stocks and the stochastics are all lining up in the high region ready to move downward. My overbought/over sold indicators are also starting to register in the over bought region. I think we could still drop next week or else at least go sideways for a while waiting for a news event to push us down. I still will probably ditch my CPWR puts since I just found that they report Monday and I expect them to do well as usual. For insurance puts over the weekend I am really looking hard at MU. I like IBM for puts but they report Monday also. LU received an upgrade today so that will probably fight the downside a little while, CPQ and GTW tried to climb again and DELL did hold the support level I show so I don't see much other than MU and MU had a higher low but it is always begging me to short it when it gets over 30 and the stochastic is getting up there in the nose bleed area. I will probably wait and watch the market for strength and see if it can climb any higher until I see if there are any better put targets. XRX backed down a bit but the move didn't justify the ridiculous premiums they are wanting. IBM premiums are high also. I just figured out the premium I payed for my puts today and it cam e out at a volatility factor of 100%. Normal for this stock is usually around 45%. This is nuts. I may start buying the stock and writing calls and puts on them just to collect premiums. The OEX is approaching the downward trendline that sparked the last downturn also. I see allot of indications that the top may be in but the chart patterns themselves aren't screaming puts yet. Hopefully the HWP warning will give me an exit tomorrow and then I can sit back and watch some more. I just wish I could get some time off work so I could trade these swings. Good Luck, Lee

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (16634)	10/14/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

dennis, thanks for the update. Favors sweats the daily details only because he has a host of subscribers and needs the text. But for several weeks now ... we have been saying that the market must definitively test 8100-8200 before the short-term direction is clear. Ralph Acampora said this short-term rally was tradeable on the upside, and I will go with that until the market tests resistance HARD. Some SI posts have poohed poohed Ralph and likened him to a weathervane, that he points in the direction of the wind ... after the wind blows. Don't these naive people realize to obtain data the event must occur first?? But to objectively read the data requires skill and NO EGO?? What these posters fail to appreciate, so what if a tech guru does not catch the turn precisely ... catching 75 percent of the ride still yields healthy profit.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (16634)	10/14/1998 11:31:00 PM
From: NickSE	Respond to of 42787

dennis, Stumbled on this, maybe someone will find it useful. BTW, for anyone who doesn't know, Monday is October 19. Can you say bad omen??? If we start crashing hard through Friday, could be 'Black Monday II' with all the negativity around. ^o^ cnnfn.com Market Conditions by Ed Downs Updated Wednesday, October 14 at 6:30pm Central Well, my Long count from yesterday did me justice today – we were up, but not as much as I expected. But – hold onto your hats for tomorrow! Two important things happened on the intraday chart today. First, we did not take out the previous high. Second, the day ended down with fierce selling in the last hour or so. This indicates to me that tomorrow will open strongly down, and will probably sell off significantly. This chart looks extremely bearish to me for tomorrow, but the Open on the Dow will "tell the tale." I would expect a strong down move (about 150 or so points) followed by a consolidation. If the consolidation fails, and it continues down, we will likely have a down 250 to 300 day tomorrow. As an aside, I find that typically the state of the market 45 to 50 minutes into the day tells a whole lot about what is going to happen next. Often, the market will turn at that point and move solidly in the other direction (as it did today). Other times, we continue in the same direction as the Open. In any event, if you are day trading (or even if you are position trading and can wait until this drama unfolds before placing orders), you have a big, big advantage on the day's action going to the close, with about 5 ½ hours of market action left after the smoke clears. It's no secret that I am bearish right now (but very much want to turn bullish!) Tomorrow could be a key day in telling us whether the market is going to break down in the 4th quarter, or whether it's going to bounce back and confound all of us bears. If the market turns, you can bet I'll be the first in line to buy Call Options! Remember – The Market is Always Right. Good luck in your trading! investorlinks.com Regards, OrBiT

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (16634)	10/15/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: browser	Respond to of 42787

in a way i feel sorry for favors <lol> he is probably right in his chart analysis but then something comes up--ala greenspan-- and boom!!! every thing goes against the charts thx for posting his reports

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (16634)	10/15/1998 9:00:00 PM
From: Saulamanca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

the Contrarian .....Market explodes on rate news... At about 3:15 p.m. EST, the equity market was in the process of selling off, the Sox was flat on the day and the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 still were up a percent and a half. The banks finally had managed to rally about a percent and the market was in the process of rolling over. Then the news that the Fed cut the discount rate hit the tape. It didn't cut the funds rate further; it just lowered the discount rate. The S&P futures rocketed from 1024 to 1075, up 5 percent in about five minutes, in what has to be the biggest move in the history of the stock market. (Conveniently, the futures limits are bigger in the last hour.) There was a tremendous amount of buying and short covering as the averages lit up. The Sox rallied 4 percent, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 finished up 5 percent, and the bank stock index charged forward for more than 6 percent. The timing of the move was most interesting. It was after all the futures had closed. The only markets open were the equity and equity futures markets. Tomorrow is option expiration. Most of the narrow indexes (Nasdaq 100, Sox, MSH, BKX etc.) expire based on the opening prices. If you were going to do something to cause the most aggravation, it would be in the last 45 minutes on a Thursday afternoon before expiration, while the rest of the world was asleep. Either the Fed is stupid (and we can make a pretty good argument for their lack of wisdom, as I have documented in past Raps) OR it intended to MANIPULATE the stock market WITHOUT the discipline of the dollar getting hammered or the gold market rallying. It is unclear what its motive was, but naivete or stupidity is hard to believe. Bad news brewing... We have now seen a stupendous turnaround from last Thursday. However violent the selling was a week ago, the buying has been just as aggressive. Some of the big names that I follow have rallied 40-50 percent in the space of five sessions. Obviously the rumors about Bankers Trust (BT), Lehman and BankAmerica (BAC) et al. being in huge trouble, must be true. To compound matters, there was a story in the Washington Post (the official Fed leak source) that quoted an unidentified Fed official as saying that unless something catastrophic happened between now and the next FOMC meeting, they wouldn't change rates. Something major is brewing in the bad news department. I have said in the past that Greenspan is going to go down as one of the most irresponsible Fed chairmen of all time, and I stand by those words. Some would say that of course, we need to ease, but the reason we are in this predicament is because we created too much money and a bubble. Creating more liquidity does not solve that. Once you have 40 shots of tequila, the best way to drive home is not to have another 40 so you don't feel bad........... stocksite.com