To: Ron Flanigan who wrote (6061 ) 10/14/1998 9:28:00 PM From: Anthony Wong Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9523
<OT>Ron, the transcript for the NBR segment with the lady's name & all: What's Next For Stocks? SUSIE GHARIB: So, what do the technicians say about what's next for stocks? Let's check in with Kara Kavanagh of Bridge Trading. Her charts point to lower levels. So, Kara, it looks like you're bearish. What are the patterns that you're seeing? KARA KAVANAGH, TECHNICAL ANALYST, BRIDGE TRADING COMPANY: Basically what I'm seeing right now is bumping up to resistance levels in the major indexes, the Dow and the S&P for example. Bumping up to these upper trading ranges on lackluster volume. And you really would need the volume to break through to the upside. GHARIB: Actually, let's go to what your charts are saying, and first take a look at the Dow. Right now we're around the 8000 level? You're saying year end 6800. So that stock's going down another 15 percent. Walk us through this. KAVANAGH: Sure. It certainly is a possibility. Again, we don't have good volume on rally days. Also we probably have seen a test of the 74, 7500 level four or five times in the recent past. I think we're going to have to retest that level again. And I do believe if we break down through that 7400, 68 is probably the next stopping point on the Dow. GHARIB: Let's turn and see, we're on the S&P. Your forecast pretty much the same story where 8875 on the S&P by year end. GHARIB: That's another 15 percent drop from where we are now. Is this your worst case scenario? KAVANAGH: That's my worst case scenario. We did test 923 the other day so there is some support in the 900 to 923 area. But again, you know, 875, if we do break that 920 area is a possibility. GHARIB: You know, one of the things that I hear from a lot of the market strategists who are bearish and see stocks going lower, like yourself, is that there is not enough capitulation, not fear in the marketplace. KAVANAGH: Right. I think we're at the ... GHARIB: It's kind of scary, yes. KAVANAGH: ... to sum it all up. GHARIB: But is that your view, as well? KAVANAGH: I would pretty much have to agree. Again, the volume on the up- days is a problem. We haven't seen a clean out. We haven't seen a huge number of stocks on the NYSE making 52-week lows. Not beyond that 1000 level we saw recently. So there are still some factors, clean out factors let's say, that have not happened yet. GHARIB: We just have a few seconds left. Real quickly. When stocks do turn, which stock group will be the leaders this time, do you think? KAVANAGH: I think we need to focus on the financial stocks. They have led the market down. Hopefully, they will lead the market back up if we have a rosy scenario. But definitely take a look at the financial stocks. GHARIB: The banks and the brokers. KAVANAGH: Banks and brokers. GHARIB: Thanks, Kara. KAVANAGH: Thank you. GHARIB: And we've been speaking with Kara Kavanagh, technical analyst with Bridge Trading. quote.com