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To: drsvelte who wrote (4237)	10/14/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 14427

Doc, gold has the danger of falling back into the dumpster. With the past US$ move I would expect gold to move a lot more. The fact it could not hold above $300 for more than a few days is bad news. The speculation on gold may evaporate should US$ stabilizes when the hedge funds and foreign holders no longer moving things around quickly. There is really no good fundamental reasons such as inflation or jewelry demand for gold to move up sharply. In the weak but stable economic climate around the world, gold price is not going up anywhere in a hurry. The risk is the party is over and we are left a gold stuckholders. I'm afraid it will have to take some global upheaval from the roman god to have a strong, sustained rally. Have some NEM left in my IRA account. There are increasing voices which pointed to the recent Nasdaq low as the crash we had been waiting for. When I looked around that day it was broadbased capitulation for the mid and small cap co's. Now that we are 5-6 days later, a lot of these stocks have rallied >20%. The big cap techs like DELL and CSCO actually lag the recovery. There are a handful of sectors getting trashed each day and one latest sector is the vitamin makers. They have been trashed for a long time but capitulation time for them may be very near. NBTY is my trashed stock and I'm bottom fishing here. It's next year PE is actually below 10, a historical low. It's like one of the drillers getting trashed from mid 20's to $5 except it has a really sound fundamentals and >20% growth rate. I'm recommending looking at it as a long term buy at below $5. I do look for at least one more round of decline across the board but we might have seen the low's. Nothing has changed really, with DOW confined within 8100 and 7400. It has become the stock picker's market again. AFS - hit upper BB today and a pullback is necessary. However, if it surfs the upper BB tomorrow and goes to $70, we could be in for a rude awakening if it breaks $71-$72. I shorted it today. INTV - shorted it today again at $22. Stop at $22 5/16 tomorrow. XMIT - the evil deeds never end. Today's spike was artificial by all measures. However, I do plan on closing it out in the next decline if it finds support at $15 or $12, whichever materializes. GIFI - another evil of the OSX. The culprit is the volume. No volume - can't go down like FGII. I plan on covering this too hopefully in a big panic intraday selling. I would rather trade FGII instread. MTC - thought this is a good value now that it has taken a haircut? I think not. Look at the chart of CA and one should understand why. Not in this climate and plenty of tax-loss selling pressure keeping it contained for a while. But the company is fundamentally sound. Just that its PE is a bit pricy.