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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (31593)	10/14/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Wednesday, Oct 14 1998 11:02PM ET Reply # of 55490 INDEX UPDATE ----------------------- Market internals improved slightly, but nothing to write home about. My short-term technicals are in the OVERBOUGHT region(80-90), and a few CLASS SELLS. Intraday I had calculated that if the DOW is up 100 points and closed there, it would be a CLASS 1 SELL to obtain at THURs highs. The DOW did not close there and the DOW is at 85 per my system. It can still move up tomorrow, but the upside is limited. Now here is something interesting, at least I think so. On 8/7, 8/25, 9/2, 10/6 - the DOW was up strongly(over 100 points) only to sell off significantly intraday and close FLAT(plus or minus 50 points). Each of these days it also went negative, but the intraday day up side was about 2 times+ greater than the downside(negative territory). Those dates are when such formation appeared after an upswing. In Candlestick talk, it formed a SPINNING TOP with the UPPER SHADOW about double the length of the LOWER SHADOW. It did not matter if it was a black day or white day. Guess what happened the next 2 days in each case. In all the instances the next 2 days or more were down, and in the case of 8/25 it was the beginning of the big downdraft from 8600 range to 7400 range. Unfortunately, none of those dates happened during an expiration week, and we all are aware how expiration week can skew things. I am not saying that this will be the big drop, just something interesting. I am still holding to my postion that the TOP of this specific short-term cycle occured on 10/12 when the DOW hit 8084. Unless 8084 is broken to the upside convincingly by about 50 points(8134), then I will still feel that this downswing is intact. It could just be expiration week skewing things. If the market does not pullback THUR/FRI, and 8084 is not broken to the upside, watch out for Monday onwards. Since my short-term technicals are not yet CLASS SELL status for the majority of the indexes, the market could still move up some, but the upside will be limited. Seeya

To: William H Huebl who wrote (31593)	10/14/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: B.REVERE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

William, when the market plays fair (i.e. fed doesn't bail out hedge funds or buy up spx futures), it ususally responds to the consumer sentiment surveys when uncertainty reigns. The Michigan survey shows up at 10 am Friday. If there is a drop of greater than 5 points, we have a market crash Friday. No matter what the clowns come up with on cbnc, if the public has determined that there are enough layoffs going on to threaten their security, they will stop spending discretionary income. A market which can't decide if we're going into a recession or not, will have its answer. Later, BR