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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: corporal spewchunks who wrote (5501)	10/16/1998 12:33:00 AM
From: margie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

<If I understand the deal AGPH made with Roche, AGPH receives a royalty on the sale of Roche's drug as well as Viracept. > I believe the arrangement is that Agouron gets royalties on whichever protease inhibitor sells more, and the larger the difference, the higher the royalties, an unusual arrangement, but it seems like that is more favorable for Agouron. There was after hours trading in Agouron; about 74,000 shares traded just from 4:30 to 5:00, with several small trades at 36 and 36 1/8. With Agouron being added to the S&P 400 index after the market closes tomorrow and with the late afternoon rally today due to the unexpected lowering of interest rates, tomorrow should be an interesting day. There was an interesting article called "Viagra Falls" in thestreet.com on August 25th, about the continuing decline in new prescriptions and refills for Viagra. Initially analysts had said that Pfizer's Viagra would do $6 billion annually at peak and Business Week had estimated $10 billion in annual sales. Total prescriptions for Viagra have fallen significantly. Sales of the impotence drug Viagra fell to $141 million this quarter from $409 million in the second quarter and this $141 million includes $26 million in sales to European manufacturers, ahead of European approval. Flynn, analyst for Furman-Selz, says that the histories of all lifestyle products launched have been similar to Viagra; an early peak with declining use thereafter, citing Rogaine, Redux, Muse, and nicotine patches to stop smoking. Perhaps some of those short Agouron had been expecting prescriptions for Viracept to decline as well, even though Viracept is not a 'lifestyle drug" but a "life-saving drug" and AIDS is not a passing fad. Prescriptions for Viracept are still increasing 17 months after FDA approval and the total market for HIV drugs is growing and IMS data indicates that year to year growth remains a solid 20% for the total PI market. Viracept's growth rate (adjusted) was 5% higher in September than in August. Total new prescriptions for Viracept were 19,043 (adjusted growth-5.2%) and refills were 33,357 (adjusted growth-4.8%). Viracept remains the number one prescribed HIV protease inhibitor in the United States and apparently Europe as well. It would be ironic if sales of Viracept in the coming quarter surpassed those of Viagra. Total Viracept sales are estimated to be 117 million, including contract revenues from Roche, which are difficult to estimate. These are conservative numbers, as Agouron allowed for any changes in numbers due to Sustiva approval. It seems that Agouron was correct in saying Sustiva would increase sales of Viracept. The data we have seen so far showed that superior results were obtained using Sustiva and Viracept together, and FDA approval of Sustiva, was based partly on the results of studies of Viracept in combination with Sustiva. <<Pfizer said a big reason for its soaring SG&A outlay was its hiring of 1,100 new salespeople in the quarter to promote newer prescription drugs, particularly a promising pain and arthritis drug which it plans to co-market for Monsanto Co. ''Pfizer probably spent $100 million to hire these extra 1,100 salespeople in advance of the Celebra launch, but by doing so they're preparing themselves for a very strong 1999. The company is basically on track,'' said Warburg Dillon Read analyst Timothy Chiang.">> Message 6016849 This is interesting in view of Steve Fancy's post referring to this message: messages.yahoo.com. I didn't realize it cost that much to hire a sales force. With all the financial problems that Dupont seems to have, a ready made sales force would certainly benefit Dupont, one way or another. ___________________________ As far as Agouron and Immune Response, it's probably just related to the original agreement made between agph and imnr in June, when Agouron acquired the rights to license Remune. There were milestone payments and purchases of stock involved. I wouldn't put too much faith in information from bulletin boards.