To: Carl R. who wrote (39947 ) 10/15/1998 1:33:00 AM From: DJBEINO Respond to of 53903
ING Baring's Wolff on Outlook for Japan's DRAM Makers: Comment Bloomberg News October 14, 1998, 6:33 p.m. PT Tokyo, Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a comment by Peter Wolff, an analyst at ING Baring Securities (Japan) Ltd., on the outlook for Japan's five largest makers of the dynamic random- access memory chips used in personal computers. NEC Corp., Toshiba Corp., Hitachi Ltd., Fujitsu Ltd. and Mitsubishi Electric Corp. face losses on microchips for the six months ended Sept. 30 after average prices of the most commonly used DRAMs fell about 60 percent this year. ''We're bumping up and down near the bottom, but with all the cutbacks in capital spending, which eventually are going to work out to a slowdown in supply, things have to start improving. ''The question now is when as opposed to if. In that sense I'm more optimistic than I have been in the past. ''I don't know if people are going to go profitable, but the red ink is gong to shrink and they're probably going to break even some time around the second or third quarter next year. ''We're looking for companies to get close to breaking even in the memory side of the semiconductor business. ''Some of the Japanese companies could go profitable in the next year, but it's dependent on pricing, because in the second quarter of next year you have another shrink (in the line-width of microchips' circuitry) coming on, and that's going to lead to a lot more supply coming into the market. ''Year-end (PC) sales are very important, not only for the consumer but for people at the companies who control the budgets. The question is what the PC market is going to look like next year. ''The Japanese companies are doing everything they can. They're obviously being pushed by their finance departments. And they're finally beginning to rethink their strategies, such as whether they want to stay in the business or not, which is always good.''