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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (16510)10/15/1998 1:13:00 AM
From: Ruffian  Respond to of 152472
 
Jon-All, Int'l telecom IPO's Bear Proof;



Int'l telecom IPOs look to be almost bear-proof
Investment Dealers Digest

In the perilous new-issue market, massive stock
offerings from state-owned telecommunication
concerns are proving to be as far above the
volatility fray as they come.

In spite of bearish market conditions, price talk is
expected today on [ Nikko Securities Co. ] 's
and Goldman Sachs & Co.'s IPO for Japan's
NTT Docomo-the mobile phone unit of Nippon
Telegraph and Telephone Corp. -a transaction totaling as much as $19.8
billion. The deal, which is expected to hit the market October 22, could rank
among the largest offerings ever. Also looking to issue sizable offerings in a
shaky market are state-owned telecoms in Finland, Greece and Poland.

Hopes for the success of such deals were buoyed last week when
underwriters Warburg Dillon Read and [ J.P. Morgan ] priced the biggest
global IPO of the year to date, a $5.6 billion behemoth offering for
Switzerland's state-owned telecom Swisscom AG.

"The fact that all these guys are in the market is an indication that {telecom
deals} are about as bear market-proof as you can get, because they're big
and safe," said one telecom banker.

In the case of Docomo, even though Japan is slipping deeper into recession,
the company is free of emerging market issues, operates in the world's
second largest economy, and has good fundamental growth, experts say. In
addition, because Docomo ranks among the largest cellular companies
worldwide, it will likely be a stock almost all big telecom investors will have
to hold and big-cap specialists will want to hold.

Observers say Swisscom-which priced 22.1 million American Depository
Shares at $25.30 apiece-benefited from similar circumstances. Aside from
being a blue-chip telecom with good financials and very little exposure
outside of developed Europe, the deal was the first-ever Swiss privatization
and the country's largest equity offering.

Bankers familiar with the transaction said that the deal also got a boost from
its marketing. Price talk was wide at $23 to $29, allowing for market
flexibility. It was also sold as an international institutional offering.

"Switzerland is just not that big a country, so the idea is not that you're going
to place 80% of it retail," said a capital markets chief.

As for the impact of a Swisscom and other telecoms on a wounded equity
market, reviews are mixed. To be sure, international and privatization deals
in general have drawn out cautious American investors in recent weeks.
Swisscom is just one of a handful of large international names to tap the
market recently. German software company, [ iXOS ] , also sold three
million ADRs at $20.75 apiece through Goldman Sachs last week. The
German concern traded up a point in the aftermarket, while Swisscom
bounced three points.

But the market hasn't been all roses for other international deals, including
one big telecom issue. Last Monday, [ France Telecom SA ] shelved a $7
billion deal, and the Italian government put the brakes on a $2.5 billion sale
of shares by Banca Nazioanle del Lavoro. Both countries cited poor market
conditions. Dutch financial services firm [ Fortis Amev NV ] also postponed
a $2 billion offering. Elsewhere, recent offerings from Belgium's Mobistar
NV and French insurer CNP opened to more reserved receptions.

While the performance of foreign deals has been generally favorable, it has
not been so strong that there will be a marked increase in the appetite for
international paper, says David Menlow, president of IPO Financial
Network Corp. "A company like Swisscom doesn't come around very often
and the European markets are not awash in deals. So as a result, these seem
to be more of a refuge for equity offerings," he said.

(Copyright 1998)

_____via IntellX_____

Publication Date: October 14, 1998
Powered by NewsReal's IndustryWatch



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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (16510)10/15/1998 1:13:00 AM
From: Ramus  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Jon,

I needed something to calm me down after the Padres big win in Atlanta today. Actually, I thought this info might be useful to some folks on this thread debating the merits of the various proposals and IPRs. I know nobody would bother to read this stuff before debating the subject but oh well<gg>.

Thanks Jon

Walt



To: Jon Koplik who wrote (16510)10/15/1998 6:01:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 152472
 
Jon, "I think you may have actually located something even more boring and impossible to read than the Qualcomm / Leap Wireless Information Statement. You should consider competing with "Sominex."
----------------------------------

I'm hurt! Did you forget my Black-Scholes money theory? Did you notice that D E Shaw has bitten the dust? Wow, they are dropping like flies. So far, I, Monetarist, Big-Time Margin Account holder, Interest Rate, SuperD Soothsayer Extraordinaire remain standing.

While Long Term Capital Management, D E Shaw, the US$, Interest Rates, Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, maybe even SurferM [a registered economist and MIT Wave Function technical guru] have been delicensed, taken over and sold out. With Alan Green$pan riding to the rescue on cue, in time to save a real prang. As predicted by moi in the monetary manoeuvres discussions.

Now, for some more monetary moments...

Just kidding. Did that start to lower your eyelids? It's nice to see Japan printing like mad, and Russia, and the USA. All on cue. Though they had me sweating profusely. Now Ramsey is pondering re-entry, but damn it all, Q.com has already hit $46. Wait for another slide or miss the ride? Decisions decisions eh Ramsey. He'll probably try to sneak in a vacation and put in a Web buy order from the bottom of the Grand Canyon in an attempt to trick the markets.

Actually, I usually read the gory details of things like the Leap information statement, but I'm saving it! Somehow a casual flick made me wilt.

Mqurice

[Feeling cocky now that there is a glimmer of hope that Qualcomm's rise will beat any market fall - always fun to count chickens before they've hatched. Hope I'm not booted out at the bottom as early as tomorrow morning.]