Washington Times
Oct. 15, 1998
TOP POLITICAL STORY
Pollsters see GOP gains in elections
By Ralph Z. Hallow
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
There's no evidence that the Democrats are closing on the Republicans.
Several pollsters agree that the Republicans are on course to pick up seats in Congress on Nov. 3.
Republican pollster John Morgan has followed all the polls, including his own, and says flatly, "The Republican Party is going to win the popular vote for Congress, end of subject. Now, whether we do it by half a million [votes] like last time or several million is irrelevant." Independent pollster John Zogby says just as flatly that "right now, there is no evidence of a re-energized Democratic
voter." He foresees for Republicans "high single-digit to low double-digit" House gains and a possibility of five more seats in the Senate.
"Democratic interest in the election surged over the last two weeks, where Republican interest stayed the same," says Lydia Saad, Gallup Poll managing editor. She added, however, that Republican voters "are now showing more partisan loyalty than Democrats, with party support rates very similar to 1994" -- the year the GOP took control of both houses of Congress.
After what appeared to be a consensus among analysts that Republican voters, angry at President Clinton, would be more motivated to vote than dispirited Democratic voters, much of the media has been taking an opposite tack in the past two weeks. Now the talk is of a Democratic surge.
Even Republicans have begun to express a nagging feeling that they are losing ground among voters because President Clinton and congressional Democrats have handled the budget negotiations and the threat of a government shutdown more skillfully than the Republican leadership. "We're seeing a little bit of movement back to the Democrats," says Ralph Reed, the former Christian Coalition executive director who is an Atlanta-based Republican campaign consultant. "Republicans in Congress are losing the debate over the potential government shutdown."
As did several other analysts, Mr. Reed cited Mr. Clinton's tactic of saying he was standing firm on his demand for federal money to hire 100,000 teachers. Mr. Reed complained that Republicans had no answer and even agreed to kill their own education bill instead of passing it and forcing Mr. Clinton to veto it. "Then they could have negotiated it out of the budget and still have shown that Republicans care about education," Mr. Reed says.
California Republican Chairman Michael Schroeder offers a different perspective. "The one good thing the Republicans in Congress have done a good job on is getting out the point that the issue Clinton is raising on education he only brought up in the last four or five days," Mr. Schroeder says.
The polling evidence is actually comforting for Republicans. Dana Blanton, manager of the Fox News/ Opinion Dynamics Poll, sees no evidence in her survey of likely voters that the budget negotiations were having any effect on voters, one way or the other. "You could argue that it is not affecting voters or is affecting both sides equally," she says. In her latest poll, Republicans hold a solid 8-point lead over Democrats among registered voters who were asked which party's candidate they would vote for in their congressional district.
Among a more important group -- likely voters -- who were asked the same generic ballot question, the GOP held a slightly better 9-point lead.
The Oct. 7-8 Fox poll, which sampled 900 registered voters, had an error margin of plus or minus 3 points. The finding for the 668 likely voters in the sample had an error margin of plus or minus 4 points. More good news for the Republicans came from the Oct. 9-12 Gallup Poll for USAToday and CNN, which found Republicans narrowing their 6-point gap of two weeks ago to 1 point. Forty-seven percent of likely voters now say they would vote for a Democrat and 46 percent for a Republican if the election were held today. Only 461 likely voters were sampled, however, for an error margin of plus or minus 5 points.
Some Republicans were dismayed by the widely reported Oct. 8-10 Washington Post survey of 802 random adults. Among "likely voters" in that poll, support for Democratic candidates rose to 49 percent from 47 percent two weeks earlier and support for Republican candidates fell to 45 percent from 49 percent over the same period.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman John Linder pointed out that The Post's surveys have "always underestimated the GOP's actual ballot performance among likely voters." The most glaring error was in the Republican landslide year of 1994, when The Post poll showed GOP support at 47 percent; on Election Day, Republicans took 53.5 percent of congressional votes nationwide.
Weekly Standard Editor William Kristol, who was former Vice President Dan Quayle's chief of staff, sees GOP slippage that neither Miss Blanton nor Mr. Morgan does, but nonetheless is bullish on Republican victories next month. "The Democrats have had a little bear market rally for the last two weeks, but the primary underlying trend remains anti-Clinton and Republicans will pick up seats across the board, in the Senate, House and among governors and in state legislative chambers," Mr. Kristol says.
In California, Mr. Schroeder says The Post poll showing a "momentary spike" in Democratic support doesn't jibe with any statewide or other national data he has looked at. His daily polling in California shows no change in the projected total number of voters who will turn out on Election Day, he says.
"In California, the number of Democrats projected to turn out has declined 16 points in the last 45 days," Mr. Schroeder says.
"We track daily and California numbers haven't moved -- the projected total turnout and who's planning to vote," says Mr. Schroeder. "Those who care the most about Bill Clinton right now are the least likely to vote."
"So far, nothing Clinton had done on a possible government shutdown has hurt us here," says Mr. Schroeder. |
