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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (55547)	10/15/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 58727

Trey: That was quite the post. I am going to have to print that one out and think about it! <g> Regards, LG

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (55547)	10/15/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Cape Blanco	Respond to of 58727

".....we are now borrowing not to prop up the government, but instead the market." right on. marc

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (55547)	10/15/1998 2:26:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Hi Trey,..Re: .it also makes a rate cut damn near impossible for a fed that is obsessed with inflation. Good post Trey, but the rally may be also based on a general realization that long term treasuries are not the place to grow wealth. Also, given that the Fed is obsessed with inflation, the PPI report today should cause them to pause and reconsider. Although, AG does watch the price of scrap steel and that is down according to today's PPI. <gg> stats.bls.gov PPI - Sept By contrast, prices for iron and steel scrap fell 9.6 percent in September, after decreasing 7.4 percent in the prior month. You are correct in that the Fed has been adding liquidity for awhile now. But I don't expect that the dollar will stay low for long in the face of the Japanese printing presses along with their continued reluctance to 'just do it' as far as the banking sector is concerned. So we are left to wonder if the market is rallying on hopes of further rate cuts or because there is actually no decent alternative for growth funds. Tech earnings will help but we need the financials to provide the base to continue. Here's where it gets confusing, the financials need the spread between short term and long term rates to profit but long rates keep falling due to flight to quality buying. This is a big puzzle and consternation. (to me anyway) <GG> Regards, Lee

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (55547)	10/15/1998 2:33:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

I don't think we get an accurate read on this market until Monday, after tomorrow's options expiration. While I'd be pleased to buy in if we break up through the down-trend lines convincingly on Monday, I agree the fundamentals of the world picture constrain the upside potential. But I think this would set us up for a major downside, possibly a month down the road or whenever the next piece of drama hits the news wires. Hopefully, Monday will move convincingly to the downside leaving the downtrend lines intact and this agony will be quickly over. I remain in cash until a clear trend develops.