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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (16553)	10/15/1998 2:25:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

ALL, Just another Opinion; Uplink Betrayed by Technology This magazine usually takes the side of emerging technologies, touting their potential for progress in this increasingly “technoid” world. These newer technologies tend to be a lot more fun to talk about than the bread and butter ones that have become second nature to most engineers. And, unlike any other publication, we look at these interesting technologies with a focus on their communication capabilities from an engineer's perspective. But every so often, it's important to look back and learn from the mistakes we've made in choosing the wrong technologies — we did not markete a technology properly, failed to see how to cost effectively bring it to the mainstream market, or over-marketed a technology that doesn't work well enough. I'm referring to the case of code division multiple access(CDMA) in wireless telecom applications. We've been told by some service providers who are using IS-95 in their 800-MHz cellular networks that they are getting only 4 times the capacity benefits of analog cellular. Many of the wireless providers have implemented IS-95 at 800 MHz specifically for capacity reasons, since their airwaves are more crowded than 1.9 GHz. Int the past, Qualcomm, who completed the alterations to bring CDMA (IS-95) into the commercial world as a consumer technology, claims of 20 times the capacity of analog cellular. Then, the capacity was brought down to 10 times that of analog cellular just as CDMA networks were being deployed. If cellular isn't a consumer-oriented wireless system, I don't know what is! Yet, even cellular is not realizing such capacity claims. What went wrong? It could be a multitude of things, such as the design of the infrastructure, its deployment, and a general lack of CDMA expertise. Most of our contacts have cited the complexity of IS-95 as the main reason for their problems. Additionally, they have said that IS-95 is not as data-ready as they hoped, whereas the GSM standard is further along in providing data services. The funny thing about CDMA's troubles is that they have not stopped the onslaught of CDMA technology wins in Asia and North America, with over 7.8 million subscribers worldwide in 1997. In fact, a wideband version of CDMA is being proposed as the universal wireless standard (UMTS). W-CDMA is supposed to offer greater capacity than the conventional narrow-band CDMA systems in place today. Sound familiar? What's at stake here is that wireless telcos paid a heck of a lot of money to buy PCS bandwidth, deploy expensive and untested IS-95 networks and handsets, and roll out marketing programs to support these efforts. Have they been betrayed by technology? Some think yes, while others say that all the bugs will eventually be worked out and CDMA will perform as expected. The lesson to be learned is not to jump head first into a “religious war” based on the hottest new technology. Ask for test results, deployment trials, and proof that deploying an emerging technology in an already commoditizing market will be beneficial. For our part, we will take a tougher stand on the latest and greatest technologies coming over the wire (or air, as the case may be). No one can afford to be blind to the dubious promises and over-hyped nature of a new, sexy technology. Not even us. Nwestmoreland@mfi.com Communication Systems Design Send comments to: Webmaster Copyright © 1997 Miller Freeman, Inc., a United News & Media company.