To: Trey McAtee who wrote (55562 ) 10/15/1998 3:25:00 PM From: Elroy Jetson Respond to of 58727
A decline on the Dow to 5,400 or so would certainly damage investor confidence for a while, but I think preferences for one type of investment over another is driven mostly by longer-term economic trends. Inflation killed the Bull market of the 1960's, shifting investment into real estate and other hard assets (along with all manner of non-economic tax code induced investments). The move towards price stability beginning 10 years ago shifted investment back to stocks and bonds. I can forsee a long-term move out of equities and bonds ONLY if the central bank response to the current collapse of confidence were to be inappropriate to the degree that an inflationary environment were created and not corrected. The decline in the dollar will, of course, send our economy into a more inflationary mode (which will help raw material producers Asia, Brazil, Canada and Australia). The Fed has grown monetary aggregates by large amounts that will need to be reversed at some point in the future when confidence returns and thus monetary velocity increases. But I think few people believe the Fed has been too easy and eager to lower interest rates (other than the occasional Fleckenstein whose manic optimism about silver and gold certainly must qualify as speculative bubble of imagination unsupported by the real world). Without a long-term shift to an inflationary economy which I do not foresee (historically, cycles simply don't change that quickly), I don't think that a decline to 5,400 or even lower would change the preference for stocks and bonds. This kind of value pricing would in relatively short order bring out buyers and a new Bull market as it did in 1987. The rate cut just now shows how quickly sentiment can change.207.95.154.130