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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (7123)	10/15/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Z268	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Someone at the Fed will probably produce a doctoral thesis in six months' time titled: "Lemmings at The Market Gate: Irrational exuberance, irrational manic panic, and irrational schizophrenia" <gg>

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (7123)	10/15/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Actually, I think he's just correcting what he did earlier; that is, this is the cut he should have made after the last meeting (1/4% discount, 1/2% Fed funds cut). However, it is obvious he did it at a time when it would have a pretty big impact on the market. Expiration Thursday no less.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (7123)	10/15/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Derrick P.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Finally read the Forbes article Batten the Hatches: The deflationary hurricane in Asia is heading this way. Oct. 19 '98. It seems worse than even we have speculated about here. They talk about many Asian companies that are deeply in debt, still losing money, and still have no intention of closing. 'As long as the plants are churning out goods, banks can pretend that their loans to the failing companies are still good.' Many can not servicing their debts and even the ones that could have stopped or 'they couldn't compete with their insolvent neighbors.' 'Ing Barings reckons that to achieve a bare return equal to the total cost of invested capital, Indonesia needs to shut 78% of its factory capacity; Korea, 77%; and Thailand and Malaysia, 64%.' I understand the interest rate cut, I'm not sure I understand the markets reaction to it. Comments appreciated, as I have some Asian funds that have rallied and am considering selling, (purchased at higher levels.) Derrick