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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (8244)	10/15/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: Bob Howarth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

The good is that more pressure is taken off foreign currencies in China and Brazil, thus shorting out the world panic and increasing liquidity.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (8244)	10/15/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: Waldeen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

on rate cuts, I had hoped we wouldn't get these, was actually glad when we got the one-quarter of a percentage point before... when the market supposedly wanted half of a percentage point. Otherwise agree, it implies the situation is worse than we thought. But, would have to speculate that the very interesting timing of these rate cuts is related to part of your "bad" scenario: The rate cut could mean a lower dollar, which would hurt the first position, and a bigger spread, which would hurt the second position, thereby actually adding to the volatility and forcing the hedge funds (and banks alike) to liquidate their positions for even louder cries of "Oooch!". I tend to believe there has been more of a "conspiracy" due to the timing of these rate cuts to avoid hurting the hedge funds. Essentially we should have gotten this cut before, but the hedge funds were allowed some breather space. If the hedge funds are now mostly 'out' of their riskier positions, then this is positive. That is, we were in a situation worse than we thought, but now we have survived the worst? Seems we are missing out on some significant information to decide for sure. But then I am a skeptic. It may be sometime before we really know what happened. Problem is we need to figure out what happened to guide our trades from here. And that's why you are interested in this. Speculating here, but seems the jury is still out, comments? Waldeen