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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (25326)	10/15/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

You are being a party pooper! I am completely ecstatic! I would have sold a bunch today, but went into a meeting that lasted past 1:00 P.M. Pst. Dumb, really dumb luck! Was mortified watching mid caps flounder while csco and msft ran off: we've seen that play before, and it inevitably leads to disaster. In 1 week this market has gone from agony to ecstasy. Now that the market is enthusiastic it is time to be very careful, and develop some real fear.

To: Gottfried who wrote (25326)	10/15/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried/All: Does anybody have the link for getting historical stock quotes in batches? This was posted some weeks ago, but I can't figure out where I saved it. TIA.

To: Gottfried who wrote (25326)	10/15/1998 8:18:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, The fast rise sets up a faster fall, however, it may not fall as far now. The dynamics are in place. Putting a sandbag on an overflowing levy doesn't really amount to much in the scheme of current events that affect our economy from external influences beyond our control. The Fed is now in a reactionary mode but may be late in addressing the issue. Time will tell. I'll have to re-evaluate the situation and look at the charts. The rate cut was expected so IMO, "much ado about nothing!" Regards, BB

To: Gottfried who wrote (25326)	10/15/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

G: ": Call me a party pooper, but I did not like the Market's exuberance after the announcement. Next year's earnings picture still looks down." I said two days ago on this thread that there would be a rally in the market before the end of the month that would keep these stocks from revisiting their lows. This was the rally. Sure, we could have backing and filling but say goodbye to the lows for this cycle IMO. Sure, earnings estimates have to come down for 1999. This is a given. But the Fed. is on the side of the investor. The Fed. is on the side of the provider of liquidity. The Fed. is long the market and it never, ever pays to bet against the Fed. The Fed. came out today and absolutely took the shorts to the cleaners. And Greenspan had every intention of taking them to the cleaners to send a clear message whether anyone wants to hear it or not. If one does not want to hear the message, then go ahead and bet against Greenspan and pay the price. What all the bears fail to consider in talking about the market's earnings for 1999 is the multiple expansion that will be accorded to a low inflation, slow growing economy. That is what is happening now. What is inflation? How about 1%. And soon the market will bootstrap this effect by discounting earnings expansion in the second half of 1999. This is how the market works. It is a discounter of bad and good news. The bad news is in the market. Don't believe me? Look at how the market reacted to Ralph Acampora's downgrade last Thursday. The Dow and S & P closed up. Same thing with Abbey Cohen's downward revisions. Nothing happened. The impeachment vote did nada. Government shut down? Who cared? Nobody did. Sure we will have some nasty surprises and mini corrections, but the Fed wants everyone here to provide liquidity on the long side and if you do a good job in equity selection, you will be rewarded. AMAT in the lows 20s was a gift for the taking.

To: Gottfried who wrote (25326)	10/15/1998 10:36:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried,Next year's earnings picture still looks down. If I were a betting man with AMAT R/S moving up to a new plateau, today at 62, with the FED easing with its funds and discount rate, with Japan starting to get their act togather, I would bet that there will be more capital for purchasing SEMI equipment available within the next 9 months. Remember, that WS looks 6-9 months ahead when pricing the SEMI Equip makers. Therefore, new orders will be coming in for AMAT and AMAT price will be jumping probably topping out somewhere in July-Sept. before the Y2K problem begins to settle into the market. Today, we saw another "x" added to the advance column at $29 after breaking a double top at $27. I will be watching very carefully the SEMI sector chart data. Just my opinions. Reactions? Paul V.