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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (14634)	10/15/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: Gordon A. Langston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Joey Is it your understanding that Brazil will come out with their Tax Plan early next week? I feel that may be the next catalyst as the market has slept through this week waiting for some news. I'm on the sidelines myself as the market has acted more positively than I would have supposed albeit on lighter volume. Gordon Langston

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (14634)	10/15/1998 11:38:00 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 18691

What AG "knows and thinks" is that it takes 6 - 9 months for rate changes to impact the economy. Victor

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (14634)	10/16/1998 12:41:00 AM
From: Marconi	Respond to of 18691

Hello JTC: The rate cut caught me by surprise. My guess is to increase liquidity to counteract a margin squeeze effect, possibly hedge fund related. Buyers cheered the move today. Tomorrow I think there will be a tendency to lighten up positions at the higher prices. My broker told me there is a lot of window dressing going on,with the mutual funds, too, which close out their year soon. I now watch the international markets daily. The lag is rarely more than 3 days between response domestically and what happens overseas. I think these factors indicate it is a traders market. Time to make hay while the sun shines.... Please keep us all informed of your thinking, and the peculiarities you see, too. There is considerable collective intelligence on Mr. Babb's thread here. I count you as one of our genuine Paul Revere's. Best regards, m

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (14634)	10/16/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

JTC, Agreed on your analysis. Greenspan has always been methodical and careful, allowing a plan to unfold slowly and have its impact over time. In the longer-term view, announcing an already-anticipated cut just a few weeks early is NOT going to matter much. So I can only presume that the cause of this is some short-term problems he'd like to try to stamp out. When taken in context of his typical approach, this pretty much qualifies as a panic move. And it does make me wonder what he's seeing right now. My guess: * He knows the latest PPI change is a fluke. World-wide trends are down, not up, not even flat. * He knows that once a deflationary cycle starts, interest rate cuts aren't going to do much to bring things back. Just look at the effect of Japanese cuts since their economy started crumbling. * So he's rushing in, trying to prime the pump, keep consumers spending and avoid deflation. IMO, probably too little too late. He needed to do this two years ago. At this point consumers are already scaling back and it's going to take more than 1/4% to make a difference. mg