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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: matt fahy who wrote (22820)	10/15/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Matt, OK, let me see if I can think this through a little better... I still can't believe this rate cut business. 1) If we don't get a gap up tomorrow, then business as usual. I think we'll just stay where we're at - $31. 2) If we gap up $1 -- well, I think there are a lot of options players who will benefit from this and try to keep it up. (just my hunch) But, then there will be profit takers sending it down. BUT, IF the institutional investor's start seeing a better bargain - maybe their outlook on the economy will change - then these big players will be more willing to get in. That to me will help us get through $33. So, I guess I will be looking to see how the big institutions will react tomorrow. Traders, shorts, momentum players, etc. will just take profits as always. If we gap up $2 or more, then I'd have to say "big money" is moving the price up. I think the answer will still depend on how world markets, US markets, and big institutions are thinking/reacting. It also may take a few days for them to sort things out. Remember how we had that huge gap up after COMS earnings two quarters ago? And then we eventually went down to "close the gap"? I've been thinking about that somewhat. It may be a similar situation, because big institutions started buying heavily (and short covering also). Looking back, I ask myself why did we have to back track like we did. To me the answer was that even though COMS surprised people and showed they had a good quarter and were recovering, it also came out that growth was forecast to be a little slower than expected. Realistically, COMS was very early in a turnaround phase, and it's very hard to gauge future growth, so the institutions took the conservative approach mixed with some additional info from the CC (and another analyst meeting a short while later) and deemed COMS a good value bet, but went back and hedged their bet by lowering growth estimates. So, if institutions get back in big in the next few days, they may later on make corrections for macro reasons, but not COMS fundamentals. And, there's a good chance, that soon, COMS growth prospects will be evaluated upwards. This is when we'll get the nice jumps up. I think I've been thinking out loud. If you get this far, thanks for bearing with me. joe