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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (31747)	10/15/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Vitas: I guess the simple use of the ARMs just cannot be killed. I thought I proved it does not work with a number of my posts. Just before this rally the ARMs gave a sell signal. What can one do? Now if someone wants to nail the market they should take the ARMs apart and see how it works. They need to play with it and analyze the relationships between indices and exchanges. The work that I do gave a screaming buy on 1/23/98 coupled with resistance lines and charts. The same work pinpointed identical conditions on Tuesday night of this week. Richard ARMs came up with a wonderful tool. I use it minute by minute quite often and day-by-day always. I will give you one to play with. Take the 5-day, 10-day, and 20- day ARMs. Put them in columns next to each other. Calculate the 5-day the normal way and do the same for the 10 and 20 day. They should all float around the 4 to 7 range. When the 5-day moves higher than the 10 and the 20-day, it quite often gives a buy signal. Why should that be? I don't know. But quite often it works. Looking at my spreadsheet now it gave that signal when the DJI was at 7842 on 9/30/98. The double .50 has a reasonable basis. Take a look at the 5-day ARMs readings from 10/8/98. They were 4.15, 3.95, 3.86, 4.08, 4.03. I did not do tonight's yet but it probably is below 4. The power of the buying was already pinning the index down before buying was evident in the indices. Part of that power was evidenced by the double .50s. There were double .60s just before 1/23/98. From 1/29/98 to 4/27/98, the 5-day ARMs managed to get above 5 only once. For 3 full months we were in a pure buying rage. Now take a look at the numbers I posted at the beginning of this paragraph. If these numbers continue 10,000 in the DJI is a given. There are no elixirs in analysis. All we can try to do is discern what the players are doing. Issues and volume do that. They are the components of the ARMs.