Russian Ties with Libya Help Rebuild Bipolar World
As Russia attempts to reassert itself as a global power, it is
reviving old alliances. A Russian delegation headed by the
Russian Minister for Emergency Situations, Sergei Shoigu, met
with Libya's Moammar Khaddafi in Tripoli on October 8, reportedly
to deliver a message from President Boris Yelstin to Khaddafi.
On October 10, the substance of Russia's overture to Libya was
made known by Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin, who
announced that Russia sought cooperation with Libya in the oil
and gas sector. However, the Russian newspaper "Segodnya"
reported that same day that the purpose of Yeltsin's letter to
Khaddafi was to explore the "prospects of the resumption of
bilateral cooperation in the sphere of nuclear power."
Segodnya's report on Russian-Libyan nuclear cooperation was
verified by ITAR-TASS, on October 13.
For almost six months now, Khaddafi has been actively seeking to
revive relations with Russia. As it asserts Russian interests
from Iraq to Kosovo, Moscow has also begun to respond positively
to Libya. On September 14, Russia Duma leader Gennady Seleznyov
met with the Secretary General of the General People's Congress
of Libya Mohammed Zentani. During the meeting, Seleznyov
expressed his concern over the position of the U.S. against
individual countries. He also declared that Russia deplored U.S.
allegations of Libyan support of terrorism. " Accusations of
terrorism coming from the West, especially the U.S., against
whole countries runs counter to all the international norms,"
Seleznyov said. Russia has also offered its assistance in
helping to negotiate a "fair and acceptable" resolution over the
Lockerbie issue and relief from the resulting UN-imposed
sanctions on Libya. Despite the sanctions, Russia has recently
discussed a variety of economic cooperation plans with Libya,
including plans for the development of Libya's electrical power
grid, communications, and telecommunications.
Libya is already Russia's biggest debtor, owing Moscow an
estimated $7 billion. Russian aid to Libya, both in
infrastructure development and in attempting to lift sanctions,
benefits Moscow by enabling Libya to repay its debts. But
cooperation with Libya serves Moscow's foreign policy agenda as
well. Russian nuclear cooperation with Libya takes assistance
way beyond bolstering the Libyan economy and makes a clear
political statement. This direct threat to U.S. interests in the
region is another iteration of Moscow's new political agenda --
Russia intends to resume its role as a great power, on its own
terms, with its own allies, despite U.S. interests.
On October 2, we reported that Khaddafi has responded to the lack
of support form the Arab community by turning his back on it and
attempting to develop a Libyan leadership role in Africa.
Khaddafi decided that, if the Arab community will not stand up
against U.S. and UN efforts to isolate Libya, then he would find
his outlet to the world through the exertion of Libyan hegemony
on the African continent. A side benefit of this strategy is
that it allows Khaddafi to interfere with U.S. foreign policy
efforts without touching on anything that could get him bombed.
Basically, Libya sees opportunities in Africa that few industrial
nations see, and considering the linkages between Africa and the
Middle East, he may be right.
For Russia, Libya's new agenda offers a pre-packaged continent.
Resuming relations with Libya gives Russia immediate access to
foreign policy levers in Egypt, Sudan, Congo/Zaire, Algeria,
Angola, and indirectly to Nigeria and South Africa. Russia has
already reasserted its interests, and in doing so has confronted
the U.S., with political and possibly military support to Serbia
against possible NATO air strikes in Kosovo. Russia is also
proceeding with the delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to
Cyprus, a move that could undermine the structure of NATO by
fueling Greco-Turkish strife, pulling Greece towards the Russian
sphere of influence and forcing the U.S. to chose between Greece
and Turkey. In addition, Russia has thrown its support to Iraq
in its efforts to escape UN-sponsored sanctions.
Libya is but the next step in reviving old alliances and
rebuilding Russian power, and the nuclear cooperation is a nice
slap in the face of the U.S. in the process. However, the real
story is not the threat of a possible Libyan nuclear weapon in
the near future. The threat comes from the speed with which
Russia is rebuilding the bipolar world. In the midst of economic
collapse, Russia has discovered that many of its old friends may
have been forgotten, but they're not gone. The same political
patterns and animosities, and even many of the people that shaped
the Cold War are intact. Russia doesn't so much have to rebuild
the Cold War as rewire it. Despite the collapsed Russian economy
and Russia's own internal strife, Moscow will be able to reassert
itself through the many willing partners looking for leadership
against U.S. global hegemony.
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