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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Electric who wrote (16690)	10/16/1998 2:19:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

You were not alone. My left over puts that I wanted to dump were wavering so I decided to hold and see what happened since the week had been mostly up I figured late in the day or tomorrow might have a few dips to unwind the last of the calls written. I came back from my meeting and logged on to check things out just in time to see the TICK swing up to 1300 and the DOW crank 200 points up. I tried to get to the trade screen and it locked, I called Waterhouse only to be placed on hold. By the time they were ready to trade, my puts went from 2 3/4 to 2 bid. I am now a holder of puts on a great company about to announce record earnings on Monday in a reflex rally market. AG better not visit any B-52 target area since planes have been known to miss their targets once in a blue moon. (Just kidding before the feds drag me away). I still have over bought reading on most stocks and the OEX is topping according to my indicators. I will be interested in seeing how high they can crank this market. I won't bet against it right now but I am putting together my short list and will tweek it this weekend. I give this market a few weeks Maximum before we re-live the end of August. I think AG just killed some big brokerage houses, hedge funds and banks with this move unless it was leaked in advance which is highly possible. I saw some posts pointing out how the oils and many stocks moved up in advance of this cut on no news and no other technicals or FA reasons. The effect on the dollar will be horrible over the coming weeks also. The only reason this cut had to be made in this fashion was due to a large fund already going under that will be announced later, or a bunch of funds were about to go under and this move allowed them to unwind and stay alive a little longer. Either way, it won't change the long term future. Now instead of falling from the 7K DOW range in the next 6 weeks, we can fall from the 8K or 9K region months down the road when less people are looking for it. I don't think I am going to play this either way until next week after I can watch it a while. I can see some short term positives in this but a whole lot more negatives long term. I think the smart money feels the same so until I see how they are manuevering, I am going to sit this out and wait for less dangerous times and cheaper options. If the Volatility price comes down, some long term puts on the highest players may pay well in a few months or sooner. Also if everything looks more stable in a few weeks, DELL might be a good play as earnings get closer. I am worried about whiplash right now though. I would love to see MU in the high 30s or IBM at 150 for put entrys. This cut hurt me today but tomorrow I am going to start an automatic deposit to my broker so I can add extra powder for playing this thing when it finally blows apart and then hopefully I will be rich enough someday for the Fed to change rates to aid my portfolio. <g> Things I did notice today that were strange - Most of the small caps I watch didn't move up; IBM sold off on the close; Announcement came just as the top looked like it had set in and the market was rolling over and ready to drop; The dollar was already falling fast and fell faster after the cut. Are you still watching HMTT? I was going to put a different chart on my site and it was the one I was thinking of dropping to make room. If you are still watching it, I will just add more slides this weekend. I probably should do so anyway so I can add MSFT, AMAT and INTC on there since many are starting to hint they would like to see them. Are we insomniacs or is it just the Mountain time zone that makes us the last ones here every night? LOL Good Luck, Lee