To: Jeff Lins who wrote (8326 ) 10/16/1998 3:00:00 AM From: Sun Tzu Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16960
Now Jeff, you should not spoil the party for everyone by giving away the answers so soon ;) Sometimes I make posts just to get people thinking :D You are right I was thinking both Banshee and V2. ASP should actually be closer to 38. I think 1 mil. in units is possible, of which two thirds should be V2. Since we already have all the V2's we'd want and we've written a good chunk of the inventory off, may be we will show some profit. It's too late at night for me to think of numbers, but I think Monty's analyst had estimated a loss for Q4 and only 50 cents for FY99. I'd be curious to see how he'd revise them, so far he's been a better guesser than most. Any ways, 1 mil. units at 38 is $38 mil in revenue. If I remember my model right from way back when Pat and I were discussing such things, 3Dfx should make about 20 cents on that kind of revenue, but it is too late at night and my brain works slower than a Lada on a snowy up hill. SIII and nVidia are both dead. They just don't know it yet. I do expect more competition from Intel and few others in '99. I also think they would mostly fail. The way I see it, ATI should abandon any high end developement and enter a joint venture with 3Dfx on that. This will be a win-win situation for both. ATI can buy 40% of 3Dfx and get great technology which they can push for excellent profits. 3Dfx will get great OEM relationship, a management that actually knows how to market, as well as a solid future in the eye of Wall St. As for the market reaction tomorrow, I've decided that I'm going to ease up on my market views and just move with the flow for now. Cheers, Sun Tzu P.S. I think 3Dfx should give DIMD last priority from now on.