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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jeff Lins who wrote (8326)10/16/1998 3:00:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16960
 
Now Jeff, you should not spoil the party for everyone by giving away the answers so soon ;) Sometimes I make posts just to get people thinking :D You are right I was thinking both Banshee and V2. ASP should actually be closer to 38. I think 1 mil. in units is possible, of which two thirds should be V2. Since we already have all the V2's we'd want and we've written a good chunk of the inventory off, may be we will show some profit. It's too late at night for me to think of numbers, but I think Monty's analyst had estimated a loss for Q4 and only 50 cents for FY99. I'd be curious to see how he'd revise them, so far he's been a better guesser than most. Any ways, 1 mil. units at 38 is $38 mil in revenue. If I remember my model right from way back when Pat and I were discussing such things, 3Dfx should make about 20 cents on that kind of revenue, but it is too late at night and my brain works slower than a Lada on a snowy up hill.

SIII and nVidia are both dead. They just don't know it yet. I do expect more competition from Intel and few others in '99. I also think they would mostly fail. The way I see it, ATI should abandon any high end developement and enter a joint venture with 3Dfx on that. This will be a win-win situation for both. ATI can buy 40% of 3Dfx and get great technology which they can push for excellent profits. 3Dfx will get great OEM relationship, a management that actually knows how to market, as well as a solid future in the eye of Wall St.

As for the market reaction tomorrow, I've decided that I'm going to ease up on my market views and just move with the flow for now.

Cheers,
Sun Tzu

P.S. I think 3Dfx should give DIMD last priority from now on.



To: Jeff Lins who wrote (8326)10/16/1998 3:05:00 AM
From: Patrick Grinsell  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 16960
 
My estimates for Q4...

You guys make things too damn complicated. 3dfx sold Banshee for one month and got about 10 million. Conservative revenue for three months during xmas would be 30 million! Voodoo1/Voodoo2 sold 23 million. Christmas should see us do at least 25 million. (Since 2/3 of the Banshee sold chips are non-retail there shouldn't be much internal competition.) Conservative total revenue would then be 55M. Last quarter had 38% GM without one-time charges. Let's just call it 35% for this quarter. This gives us 19.25M gross operating margin. Operational expenses should be similar for about 18 million. We then have 1.25 million profit left. Add 1 million in interest. Subtract .61M for taxes (27%) and you get 1.64M total.

Woohoo, about 10 cents for Q4 with much greater potential for upside. (Free 4.5million in texelfx units and possible good V2 xmas sales and additional OEM deals.)

Pat