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To: billy d who wrote (2480)	10/16/1998 8:29:00 AM
From: Ralph Bergmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6439

Billy, I agree with your sceptical remarks concerning the overall market condition and the Fed move. For several years now the public was somehow informed in front of a decision on rates. Yesterday is more a sign of further problems than anything else. I think the succeeding decline of the US dollar will hurt producer prices much more than a rate cut is able to produce positive impact. For the future there will be further rate cuts in the US on the one hand and stagnant rates in Europe (the European central bank cannot lower rates because of the European currency union next year). This will lead to a further devaluation of the US dollar. Since the US business is more sensible to import than export this could have a negative effect on the economy. Further I expect that more hedge fonds will go bankrupt due to the unexpected rise of the Japanese Yen. No need to tell you how stock markets will be affected. I see the Dow in a range of 6800-7400 at the end of the year.

To: billy d who wrote (2480)	10/16/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: Geoff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6439

Funny that everyone here seems to share the same sentiment about yesterday's rate move. On the subway last night, two guys who were from Goldman that I know were convinced "beyond a doubt" that the Fed's move was inspired by fears of rising unemployment that will lead to a recession. There is a wide-scale fear here on the street that there will be some very severe layoffs, and that Merrill was just a drop in the bucket. So, with so many people unemployed look for alcohol, junk food, cigarettes and drugs to be the most profitable investments going forward. Of course, the last is illegal ;) later, geoff