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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (7141)	10/16/1998 9:06:00 AM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

G'day all - dear Clark, thanks for the article [?] For a while, I was scratching my head until I got to the last words "... For Private Use Only (C)Fleckenstein," for you used to write such sensible posts and peculiar syllogism like Bad news brewing... We have now seen a stupendous turnaround from last Thursday. However violent the selling was a week ago, the buying has been just as aggressive. Some of the big names that I follow have rallied 40-50 percent in the space of five sessions. Obviously the rumors about Bankers Trust (BT), Lehman and BankAmerica (BAC) et al. being in huge trouble, must be true. is so unlike you. best, Bosco

To: Worswick who wrote (7141)	10/16/1998 10:06:00 AM
From: Sam	Respond to of 9980

Clark, I too was thrown by the article until I hit the end--despite its bearishness, it didn't sound like you. So Fleckenstein got hurt by the cut--that is what it amounts to. He is short, he has been short and in pain for a long time, he thought his time was finally coming and he would be vindicated, and what happens? AG cuts! Rats, foiled again, they're all against me! He says that "A currency crisis lies ahead. When your currency goes bad you are sunk: Just ask Asia, Russia and Mexico." Well, where exactly is everyone going to put their money? All currencies can't go bad at once; if one goes down, another goes up. Unless he is suggesting that everyone will go out and buy that now discredited proxy for "currency", gold. I find that dubious. What does he expect? Of course AG cut. Interest rates--real rates--have been extraordinarily high for a long, long while now. With all of the capacity around the world, and with the general worldwide decline in purchasing power especially over the last 9 months with all of the devaluations, it is part of the job of a central banker to help, if possible, get things going again. He has room for even more cuts, another couple of points if he has to. He and the other centrl bankers will try to keep growth going for as long as they can. The alternative is too scary to even begin to contemplate. Of course, none of this will help if the countries of SEA continue to allow their people to be exploited, both by their own power elite and by multinationals. Nike just raised the wages of their lowest paid workers in Indonesia by about 22%--from $22 to $28 per MONTH, according to a little article I read today in the WSJ. 70,000 people affected. Now that's purchasing power. Anyone wear Nike shoes out there? Guess it takes a worker a a week or two to make one pair of shoes. The overhead is tough.