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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (31805)	10/16/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 94695

The move before the most recent two was a tightening (March '97), so I guess you'll have to wait another month, unless yesterday counts as two. ;-)

To: bearshark who wrote (31805)	10/16/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

It's true that "three tumbles and a jump" has been one of Norman Fosback's more reliable indicators of a rise in the stock market. But both Fosback and Burton Malkiel place even more emphasis on the predictive ability of low stock dvidend yields, and even with the market down more than a thousand points from its topp on the Dow, those were far below the paramters that in the past signaled a major bear market. My own inclination is to think that the Fed's action may help to keep this bear market from being any worse, in the end, than a 50% drop. I won't be going long on most stocks until we have the Dow down to at least 5,000.