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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (911)	10/16/1998 11:36:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

I for one will sit on the sidelines until the package for Brazil is announced, and then see whether I want to go long or short. In the U.S. market though, I don't think any rate cut will stave off the coming recession. Also, there's nothing impressive about a bunch of companies meeting or beating twice-lowered estimates. 4th Q warnings are just around the corner... the smart ones should sell into this rally while it lasts. And check out the construction & industrial equipment Co.s like Deer, Cat and FMC and Case - they're all mentioning in the press releases about how orders are down and they're feeling the pinch from Latin America. These companies have always been like a 'canary in the coalmine' for recessions, and this time is no different. I think the next few years will be quite painful. You know, lowering rates doesn't always stimluate growth - just check out Japan, whose rates were near 4% in 1990. The problem is lax lending standards, and until all the bad loans in the emerging markets are written off, we'll be doing nothing but keeping the patient on life support. Then there's our own lending bubble to worry about....... But hey, genius bill clinton gave a speech when all the foreign finance ministers were just in washington. He said "we must find a way to alter the traditional market cycle of booms & busts" That would be a neat trick.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (911)	10/16/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Henry, Yes, I read that about the Japanese upper house. But just becaused they passed a bill to bail out banks does not directly effect the buying habits of the people or their sense of doom. Nor does it correct the lack of transpanercy in their system. It remains to be seen who will benefit -- the people of Japan and its economy or the 'ingrained ruling system' that brought them to this point. Your view that a "long term package by the major players" is being put into place is certainly the 'out-in-front' view and probably all that there is to the story. Other then the Fed picking the best moment for the greatest effect. Financial players certainly took notice....very powerful. Hope You were on the right side. Chip