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To: waverider who wrote (30794)	10/16/1998 11:36:00 AM
From: Mike from La.	Respond to of 95453

Diamond The "if's" you mentioned, "if" the world economy tanks, "if" oil prices drop or matched by "if" the world economy improves, and "if" oil prices go up. At this point, no one can say which is the most likely possibilities. I usually take the position that the thing that slams you are the things no ne saw coming. Once the dangers are identified, they are usually avoided. I think there is enough recognition of the dangers to the world economy, and, for OPEC, the threat of killer low oil prices, that corrective steps will be taken. But, you pays your money and takes your chances. Clearly a majority of folks on this thread are after big time gains by taking risks and trying to move ahead of the market. People with less risk tolerances are well advised to wait until the market does move, and then follow it up. Miss the big gains, but take smaller gains with less risk. May all prosper. Mike

To: waverider who wrote (30794)	10/16/1998 12:14:00 PM
From: Paul Angell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Diamond, Forget about the flames you got in the past. Because it was in writing it sounds more offensive. If the same was said to you in a bar you would have said "no f***ing way bud - this is how I see it" etc etc. Conditional thinking has its risks. There is a risk of global recession and it should not be underestimated. When someone like Malaysia's Mahatir closes his doors and turns his back on the capitalist free market partners next door in Singapore you have to wonder what's going to happen next. Look back to the last recession. Do you know what world oil supply was then and what was the price. Whatever answer you find or whatever assumptions you make, you will find that there is a floor on oil price. In 1996 world oil supply was 71mmbpd Brent was $20 - 25. In 1998 world oil supply to Aug was 75mmbpd and price for the year has been $14. The price will rise when output gets back towards 71 mmbpd. All just my opinion, remember that bad advice is usually free. Paul.