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To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (12864)10/17/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman  Respond to of 15196
 
OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICING SCENE - PART 2 SATURDAY AM 10/17/98

U.S. spot natural gas prices soften amid ample supply

U.S. spot natural gas prices continued to soften Friday as mild weather and an excess supply of gas on the pipelines left sellers searching for buyers by late morning, industry sources said.

Swing gas prices at Henry Hub extended their discount to futures by falling another 11 cents to $1.62-1.65. Deals ranged anywhere from $1.59 to $1.70, with the lower-priced deals confirmed done shortly before nomination deadlines.

This slump in cash prices widened the differential to November futures to about 45 cents. The contract is due to expire Oct 28.

In the Midcontinent, prices similarly dropped 14 cents to mostly trade in the high-$1.50s. Trades ranged anywhere from $1.50 to $1.68, with Northern at Demarcation seen trading to a high of $1.73.

The Chicago city-gate market also softened for the weekend, with prices talked mostly in the low-$1.80s. This movement was in spite of forecasts calling for cooler weather in the area by Tuesday, equating to lows in the low-30s.

In west Texas, El Paso Permian gas traded at $1.51-1.70, while Waha values were also quoted at $1.54-1.70. Sources said most of the Waha deals were done in early trade.

The anticipated drop in weekend demand also pressured the San Juan market, which saw gas trading mostly in the high-$1.50s to low-$1.60s.

An outage on the San Juan lateral is scheduled to begin Oct 26 and last five days, according to Transwestern.

The volume affected by the outage is expected to be about 625 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) out of a total of 800 mmcfd. The San Juan lateral runs from Ignacio, Co., to Blanco, N.M.

On the East Coast, New York city gate prices were quoted at $1.80-1.86, while Appalachian quotes were heard mostly around $1.80.

Forecasts for next week called for mostly above-normal temperatures across the U.S., though seasonal weather is forecast for south Texas and temperatures are expected to drop to below-normal levels in the Chicago area by Tuesday.

Lending some support to the market, sources said, was the Alberta market, where supplies are still fairly tight. Spot prices at the AECO hub were around C$2.50 per gigajoule, or US$1.74 per mmBtu.

Canadian spot natural gas prices rise on more supply

Canadian spot natural gas prices traded lower Friday as more supply became available in Alberta, industry sources said.

Day prices at Alberta's AECO storage hub were quoted widely at C$2.45-2.65 per gigajoule (GJ), with most business reported done around C$2.50.

NOVA continued to pack gas onto its system after changing the tolerance level late Wednesday to 0/+20.

Linepack on NOVA's system rose to 12.513 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) late Thursday, compared with the previous 12.25 bcfd and the pipeline's target of 12.75 bcfd.

The forward market remained fairly strong, with one-year seen trading at AECO at C$2.66.

Prices at Westcoast Energy's Station 2 compressor followed Alberta values lower to C$2.55-2.57 per GJ.

At the Sumas/Huntingdon export point, prices retreated to US$1.75-1.85 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), off an average of 12 cents.

COMMENTARY

Closing NYMEX energies: Firm on short covering - Heating oil leads


Crude oil and product futures closed with modest to strong gains today. Heating oil led the upside charge amid a colder weather forecast for next week and the ability to hold key support this week.

With some weather forecasters talking up the prospect for temperatures to be 4 to 8 degrees below normal in much of the nation the next six to 10 days, the slippery slope to lower levels was reversed today. Heating oil put in its best performance in a month amid ideas that the peak in distillate stocks may have been reached or at least won't go as high as many expected just a week ago, one broker explained.

However, after the close, the National Weather Service released its latest 6- to 10-day forecast and it did not suggest continued cold behind this week's first cold snap that has moved into the Rockies and is expected to cover the Midwest and Northeast early next week.

Traders said the markets had become deeply oversold and were due for a rebound after holding some key levels of support this week in the face of generally bearish supply news.

One broker noted that the rally off the June lows to the October highs on the continuation chart in crude oil futures traveled nearly $5. A 50% retracement of that rally is $13.89 and Thursday's low in nearby November futures was $13.88.

He said the market held where it should this week and long-term buyers have emerged to take advantage of the sale prices.

Another trader noted that the open interest in crude oil futures has been on a recent upswing during this week's decline in prices, setting up a potential for a short-covering rally. The high volume trade Thursday in crude oil on a day when prices tested support and rallied was another signal of underlying strength.

Gasoline futures also held above last week's lows and moved higher despite talk of increased imports of gasoline on the horizon. One broker said the market has gained support from the sharp drop in inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute and continued solid implied demand in those numbers. But he warned that the price pattern could still be a bear flag formation without solid follow-through action next week.

The markets continue to be dominated by the technical trade. Market news remains relatively sparse or at least not changing overall supply and demand fundamental outlooks, traders agreed. Some traders did tie the underlying strength to worries about a possible disruption in Iraqi oil exports because of some growing tensions with the United Nations over arms inspections. Iraq has refused to hand over a document that U.N. weapons inspectors say is needed to establish whether Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction.

Some traders said the big picture may have improved with the surprise move by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates on Thursday.

While the cynics remain convinced that the Federal Reserve move suggests there are more problems going on in the hedge fund community and the economies here and abroad than have been reported, others see the move as nothing more than a clear signal from the Fed to restore confidence and head off a more protracted credit crunch.

One commodity economist for a major Wall Street firm described the Federal Reserve's move as a major shift in fundamentals. He said the acute financial market meltdown of the last several months has finally resulted in a coordinated global policy response, led by the Fed's move to ease monetary policy. He described the move as more of an attempt to correct critical short-term problems that will likely lead to the Fed overshooting on the monetary easing.

"The Fed didn't have to move to support the U.S. in the near term but it clearly fears repercussions from the problems overseas," he explained. Normally monetary easing moves take about nine months to have a major impact on the economy and the uncertain future will force them to overshoot on easing monetary conditions because of the time
lag in policy moves and actual impact on the economy, he added.

He said it is this tendency to err on the side of easing that could lead to a major turnaround in commodity prices by the middle of next year.

But it is the appearance of coordinated policy that encourages this economist to bet on a rebound in global economic activity and commodity prices in 1999. He said the International Monetary Fund budget deal, a move by China to diminish the credit crunch developing in China and the Japanese government pledge to solve the banking problems all signal coordinated policy moves. Further interest rate cuts in other nations and the Federal Reserve will increase the pump-priming mechanism for commodity markets.

While Japan's moves to improve the banking system are critical in the Asian recovery, this economist said the moves by China to ease credit and likely increase public works projects could be the key to reviving world growth and thus improving petroleum demand.

OUTLOOK

10/17 02:19 US Crude Outlook - Oversupply turns market bearish


The U.S. crude oil market will feel the pressure of several ships of foreign oil heading to the U.S., particularly since U.S. demand for crude is not very strong, traders and analysts said on Wednesday, after the release of the latest U.S. inventory data.

"I think we are heading down. There is a significant upswing in (crude) imports," Ritterbusch said, pointing to a fleet of ships carrying Brent towards the U.S. market.

One U.S. trader is said to be bringing four Ultra Large Crude Carriers (ULCCs) of the light sweet European crude towards the Gulf Coast, while other traders are also said to be showing November Brent in the U.S. Gulf at discounts around 75 cents under December West Texas Intermediate. Each ULCC carries more than 300,000 tons, or more than two million barrels of crude.

While imports are said to be streaming in, few companies are keen to build stocks any higher given the relatively narrow "roll" between November and December prices of U.S. benchmark WTI.

"The roll is coming off at the moment, but you're not going to see anyone rushing to build stocks with this contango," said one Gulf Coast crude trader. November crude is now trading between 20-18 cents a barrel lower than December crude, not enough incentive to store barrels.

News of production disruptions in Nigeria is not proving especially supportive of crude markets, traders said, noting that there were still ample early November barrels and still some October barrels of West African crudes as yet unsold. A series of community disturbances in Nigeria have stopped one fifth of the country's production, but traders said they were still monitoring the situation.

The latest U.S. inventory figures released earlier this week are not much help either, and traders dismissed the odd figures, saying they reflected short-term disruptions caused by hurricane Georges. While the American Petroleum Institute (API) figures showed a sharp drawdown of 3.8 million barrels, the U.S. Department of Energy report showed a build of 2.7 million barrels in U.S. stocks of crude oil.

"The statistics were neutral to bearish," said Nizam Sharief of Hornsby & Co., adding that the the disparity in the weekly reports reflected the disruptions caused by hurricane Georges, the fourth storm to pound the Gulf of Mexico in as many weeks.

"In the very near term, we are going to drop below $15," Sharief predicted. The front-month November contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 44 cents lower at $15.06 on Wednesday, and touched a low of $15.02 in intraday trading.

Analysts pointed bearishly to the relatively high product inventories, especially in distillate stocks, which include stocks of heating oil. While U.S. stocks of gasoline are 9.75 million barrels higher than last year's levels, those of distillates are 16.86 million barrels higher than last year.

On the demand side, the picture is also bearish in the short-term, since Sun's cuts of 177,000 barrel per day (bpd) at its two-refinery complex in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania are expected to continue until the end of the month. Similarly, Tosco's 110,000 bpd refinery in Bayway, New Jersey is not expected back up until the second half of October.

Also, the crude unit at British Petroleum's 250,000 bpd Belle Chase refinery in Louisiana still hasn't been brought back on stream after a fire broke out in the unit last week. The crude unit is expected to remain shut for another week or so, according to a company statement.

Expectations are that Chevron's Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi will be shut even longer after it suffered flooding when Hurricane Georges pounded the area late last month.

10/17 02:20 U.S. Product Outlook-firm on extended outages

Extensive unplanned refinery shutdowns due to Hurricane Georges last week boosted U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline prices, and the rally is expected to continue as two major plants were affected, traders said on Monday. "Looking at the fundamentals as far as refining is concerned, the shutdowns will put more buyers in the market than anticipated,"a Gulf Coast trader said.

The hurricane which hit the Gulf Coast a week ago took down at least seven refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi. Five of them escaped any damage but the precautionary shutdowns took out around a week's worth of 928,000 barrel-per-day of production, traders said.

But what sent buyers into the market and prices soaring in "refining row", was the longer lasting mayhem the hurricane brought at Chevron Corp's <CHV.N> and BP's <BP.L> plant.

Hit by floods, Chevron's 295,000 bpd refinery at Pascagoula, Miss. had some five feet of silt and would take at least a month to begin its start up process, traders said.

More pessimistic sources said the plant will be shut until the end of the year but the company declined to comment on the duration of the shutdown.

Although largely unscathed by the hurricane, a fire broke out at BP's 250,000 bpd Alliance refinery at Belle Chasse, LA. during its start up process on Wednesday. It restarted its 100,000 bpd catalytic cracker and 37,800 bpd reformer and other secondary units on Sunday but its crude unit will remain shut for another seven to ten days.

"Chevron is quite a large producer on the Gulf Coast and I think it will keep the market supported," a trader said. "Gasoline will and can climb even higher...I wouldn't be surprised if the conventional gasoline will go into a premium...it is near enough."

Gasoline outright prices on the Gulf Coast rose nearly 3.00 cents per gallon last week to around 45.00 cents. Its differential to the NYMEX rose from a 3.75 cent discount to the NYMEX before the hurricane hit, to 0.25 cent premium on Monday.

With the cut in output, traders expected another drawdown in gasoline stocks which fell 1.8 million barrels to 21 million in the week ending Sept. 25 according to the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Both BP and Chevron were amongst the aggressive buyers seeking mainly the gasoline, jet fuel and low sulphur diesel.

But high stocks of heating oil capped any rallies in both the Gulf and the northeast, and prices in both hubs slipped by around 1.5 cents per gallon to around 40 cents per gallon.

The API reported weekly stocks grew 2.5 million barrels to 15.3 million, around 16.7 million higher than last year's build.

While an influx of Russian gas oil was also putting a lid on New York Harbor heating oil prices, gasoline arbitrage cargoes were also going to depress Harbor prices.

"Give it five to six days...then prices will be slaughtered," a trader said on the expected arrival of cargoes.

But other traders were more skeptical.

"There is a lot of talk of incoming cargoes but until I see them will I believe it. You won't be seeing these sort of premiums if the market wasn't tight," a trader said.

Harbor outright gasoline prices have actually fallen a quarter cent to around 45.60 cents per gallon, but reformulated grades differentials have risen by nearly 1.75 cents, climbing into a premium of around 1.25 cent to the NYMEX on Monday.

Conventional differentials on Monday also flipped to 0.25 cent over the NYMEX from a discount as low as 0.50 cent.





To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (12864)10/17/1998 10:23:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15196
 
INTERNATIONAL BITS AND PIECES - PART 2 SATURDAY A.M. 10/17/98

Oil Wars
Africa News Service
14-OCT-98

Lagos (Tempo, October 14, 1998) - Youths in Nigeria's oil-producing states protesting the neglect of the Niger- Delta by successive Nigerian governments and the multinational oil companies operating on their land, take over oil installations and effectively cripple exports.

HENRY UGBOLUE writes that the youths are poised for full-scale war

No doubt, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, Nigeria's latest military ruler is a man with eyes on history. Close associates of the General readily swear that unlike Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha before him, Gen. Abubakar desires rather desperately to end his tenure as a hero. "He wants to shatter the records of both Generals Murtala Muhammed and Olusegun Obasanjo," an associate of the Head of State confides.

He may be right.

Barely days after Gen. Abubakar assumed the reins of power, prison doors were thrown open and hundreds of political prisoners and detainees held indefinitely behind bars by the very brutal Gen. Abacha were left off the hook; Abubakar's seemingly liberal mien has rubbed off on the nation's security system, dissolving the charged atmosphere that characterised the Abacha era and sweeping aside a few of his collaborators.

Overtures to the international community have begun ending the isolation of Nigeria by the civilised world.

With the transition timetable out, parties have since been formed and are awaiting clearance from the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC).

On the economic front, Gen. Abubakar has equally taken the bull by the horns.

In an apparent bid to alleviate the sufferings the Abacha years unleashed on the nation's workers, Gen. Abubakar early last month announced an upward review of the pay package of Federal civil servants, pegging the minimum wage at N5,200 per month.

State governments have equally been asked to effect increases in the earning of workers in their employ. Yet, failure looms for the Abubakar regime.

Escalating crisis in the nation's oil-producing states, analysts have predicted, would in a matter of weeks, completely strangulate Nigeria's economy.

In the last two weeks alone, analysts estimated that Nigeria lost N8. 3 billion in oil sales owing to the raging war between youths in the oil-producing states of Delta, Rivers, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom and multinational oil companies operating in the Niger Delta.

In Nembe, Rivers State, Shell last week closed 10 oil-flow stations, reducing its oil output from Nigeria by more than one-third.

Officials of Shell say the flow-stations were closed following attacks by members of the Nembe community.

They estimate that the crisis in Nembe milks the economy of 300,000 barrels of oil production per day. "It's community problems that have forced the closure.

We will have to have negotiations with the local community before we can restart production," Cerris Tavinor, a spokeswoman for Shell in London told Bloombery International News Service last week.

She assures that no long-term customer of Shell in the international oil market would be immediately affected by the crisis in Nigeria's Niger-Delta, though the spokeswoman quickly adds that "Shell could not give indication of when production would resume." The flow-stations closed last week bring to 15, the number of shut flow-stations feeding Shell's Forcados and Bonny export terminals.

The escalating violence has equally forced Eni, Italy's largest oil company to shut down pipelines and cut production by 120,000 barrels a day. Attacks on export terminal pipelines, Agip officials said last week, forced the company to suspend its Brass rivers loadings. "We have informed the government of their demands, which we can't meet, as they are beyond us. But we are also trying to make them see reasons and allow us to resume operation," Reuters quoted an Agip official as saying.

Shell and Agip are partners in a joint venture involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and France's ELF, which produces a little under half of Nigeria's entire output.

Lost production of 420,000 barrels a day in the last eight weeks at Shell and Agip represent about 20 per cent of Nigeria's daily output of 1. 98 million barrels. In the last few days, the hitherto depressed price of oil has jerked up slightly due to a fall in Nigeria's output.

Analysts and watchers of the global oil market say if the huge losses continue for another one month, the Abubakar regime risks "financial drought." Shell and Agip continue to contend with leaking oil pipelines that have created unprecedented oil spillage.

Shell's flow-stations located in the Niger-Delta area provide about 39 per cent of the over 800,000 barrels per day of oil the company produces in Nigeria under normal conditions. But the troubled youths from the oil-producing areas are anything but bothered.

In fact, indications emerged last weekend that they are poised for full-scale war with the Nigerian authorities and the oil companies.

Last Friday, the Ijaws, under their national umbrella body, the Federated Niger- Delta Izon Communities issued a press statement urging all the embassies in Nigeria to ask their citizens working in oil companies in the zone to leave, saying they can no longer guarantee their safety as from Monday, 12 October.

In a letter sent to the Head of State, Gen. Abubakar, conveying the same message, the Ijaw youths threatened to commence a full-blown war in their bid to take back "what is rightly ours." A portion of the letter which was signed by one Kennedy Omibebe and copied the Ambassadors of the United States of America, The Netherlands and the British High Commission read: "Our youths currently occupy flow-stations in Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers States and they will be there indefinitely." A day before the letter was written, Ijaw youths seized the operational base of an oil services company, Nigerian Dredging and Marine Limited, at Opukushi, Bayelsa State, crippling operations of the waterways Southwest of Warri.

Four days earlier, an helicopter belonging to Shell was highjacked and held hostage by Ijaw youths in Warri.

And while the threat letters from the Ijaws were landing the doorposts of designated embassies last weekend, Mobil Producing Unlimited, another oil giant operating in the Niger-Delta, reported that equipment estimated at millions of dollars were lost when "a mysterious" fire on Saturday gutted the company's largest warehouse located at the Qua Iboe Terminal in Akwa Ibom State.

The fire, TEMPO gathered, damaged equipment meant for the OSSO Condensate Project currently being handled by Mobil for the NNPC.

With over 90 per cent of Nigeria's foreign earnings coming from crude oil sales, the Niger-Delta unarguably is the mainstay of the nation's economy.

Yet, this region which is the goose that lays Nigeria's golden eggs is perpetually marginalised, hence its restiveness.

The no-war-no-peace situation in the Niger-Delta deteriorated immensely between 1994 and 95 leading to the "judicial murder" of the Ogoni minority rights campaigner and novelist, Mr. Ken Saro-Wiwa by the brutal regime of General Sani Abacha.

Saro-Wiwa's death did not subdue the people of the oil-producing states. "They killed Ken (Saro- Wiwa) thinking that would cow everybody in the Niger-Delta. How mistaken.

In every Ijaw home, in every Ogoni home, there is at least one Ken Saro-Wiwa," an Ogoni chief once boasted. He may have exaggerated but the current flare ups in the Niger-Delta amply testifies that the chief may be near the point.

The latest uprising in the Niger-Delta, TEMPO's investigation shows, is essentially rooted in the demand of the Ijaws for another local government in Warri, in Delta State.

Fred Omare, spokesman for the protesting Ijaw youths warns, "We suspended hostilities in 1996 to allow the Justice Alhassan Idoko Commission of Inquiry to do a good job. But months after the Commission finished its job, the government has not deemed it fit to act. It shows (the government) just want us to remain in crisis. If that is their wish, we are now set for full-scale war," an Ijaw youth told this magazine in Warri.

Indeed, the Justice Alhassan Idoko Commission on the 1996 Warri crisis submitted its report to Col. John Dungs, then military administrator of Delta State last year.

Ijaws alleged that the government is "afraid" to release the findings of the commission because it favoured the Ijaws. "They want us perpetually marginalised even here in Warri. They are afraid to implement the recommendation of the commission. Why? They are afraid of the Ijaws, that is the short answer," adds Frank Omare, the leader of the Ijaw youths.

During a recent visit to the Olu of Warri, Ogiame Atuwatse II, the military administrator of Delta State, Commander Walter Feghabor, was told by the Olu that Warri was under siege: "We must state that calm has remained elusive due to the state of lawlessness and total disregard for the rule of law." The Olu blamed Ijaw youths and informed the administrator that they (the Ijaw youths) had converted a building in Warri to their headquarters and christened the place 'Aso Rock.

"It is worrisome that the seat of power of the Federal Republic of Nigeria has an illegal duplicate in Warri to the knowledge of law enforcement agents," the monarch lamented.

A rattled Feghabor left with a promise to "look into the Warri crisis." No one has heard from the administrator. The Ijaws say they are tired of waiting for the government and have decided to take over oil installations in all Ijaw lands until the government meets their demand.

"Our people will not leave any of the flow- stations until our demands are met and if any of our people is either arrested or killed, we will blow up all the flow-stations in retaliation," Omare vows.

But late last week, things got out of hand as Ijaw youths in neighbouring Rivers, Bayelsa, Ondo and Akwa Ibom took over oil installations in their areas and tabled their own demands even as they insisted that the demands of their kith and kin in Delta State be met first.

"The youths know that oil business is big business and that money from oil produced behind and beneath their houses are being used to develop other parts of the country while they continue to live in abject poverty and squalor," asserts Chief Joshua Fumudoh, president of Ijaw National Council in a chat with TEMPO.

In Nembe, the Ijaw youths have reiterated their demand that Shell takes over the construction of the Yenegoa-Kolo-Nembe road project from the Federal Government "and complete it with our share of the derivation fund." The Ijaws in Nembe also are demanding that Shell electrifies the town and "puts in process, the immediate direct employment of one-hundred and fifty qualified Nembe people." They also want Shell's assistance in putting in place a mass transit system.

However, of utmost importance to the Nembe people is their demand that the Bonny Light (brand of crude oil) be renamed Nembe Light.

"Nembe produces one-hundred and seventy thousand (170,000) barrels of crude oil daily and has the popular 'Bonny Light' not Nembe Light.

She is visited with the worst forms of environmental degradation and pollution and economic deprivation . . . even in name she is denied her produce," reads a portion of a letter to Shell by Nembe youths.

Informed sources in the Niger-Delta said last week that Nembe youths would not have joined in the current crisis in the Niger-Delta "if Shell had not scuttled negotiations" with Nembe communities earlier in the year.

This magazine gathered that negotiations between representatives of Ewelesuo community in Nembe Local Government Area of Bayelsa State and Shell went awry following the presence of armed policemen invited by Shell.

The talks, according to the environmental newsletter, Niger-Delta Alert, were called by Shell against the backdrop of the closure of the Nembe Creek's 3 Flow Stations by local youths on Thursday, 5 March.

"We walked out of the meeting because of the intimidating presence of the armed policemen," the youth leader to the meeting, Mr. Terry Thomas told Niger-Delta Alert.

he NEWS magazine, about six weeks ago, in its cover report-'Guerrilla War in Niger Delta'-seems to have correctly predicted the escalation of the war against the oil multinationals.

The report gave an investigative insight into the militant guerrilla tactics employed by the youths in the oil communities and their resolve not to retreat, but to fight on never to surrender.
Shell's complexity in the tension and distrust that rule the hostile relationship is undeniable.

In 1993, Shell supported the military attacks that unleashed a reign of terror on the Ogoni settlement of Korokoro. After years of denials, Shell just this year accepted that it funded the pogrom and militarisation of Ogoniland, especially the invasion of Korokoro five years ago. Indeed, the Ogonis are not left out in the current flare ups in the Niger- Delta. Group-Captain Sam Ewang, Rivers State Military Administrator ignited the fury of the Ogonis.

At a recent meeting with chieftains of Shell led by the company's General Manager, East, Mr. Chris Haynes, Ewang advised Shell to prepare for resumption of exploration activities in Ogoniland where conflicts forced it to withdraw in 1993. The Ogonis did not take kindly to Ewang's invasion of Shell.

The Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP) replied Ewang less than 48 hours after.

In a statement signed by its General Secretary, Mr. Nwibani Nwako, MOSOP said it would be suicidal for Shell to return to Ogoniland.

MOSOP reiterated its position that oil exploration activities would not be allowed in Ogoniland until the Ogoni Bill of Rights is honoured by the Nigerian government.

The group reminded Shell that it has not forgotten its role in the deployment of soldiers to Ogoniland "which resulted in the death of many and raping of our women." Firmly, MOSOP warned Shell to resist the temptation to return to Ogoniland, "especially when Shell's activities have been noticed in Boma oil field." Mr. Brian Anderson, Shell's managing director is, however, sure that the coast would soon be clear for Shell to do business in Ogoniland again.

"As a law-abiding company, we have been paying royalties to the Federal Government as required by law.

A plan of action to assuage the aggrieved Ogonis is being worked out," says Brian.

Considering the raging anger of Ogoni youths, especially towards the oil companies, analysts have faulted Anderson's optimism.

The Ogonis are, however, currently busy preparing for a decent burial for their late hero, Mr. Ken Saro-Wiwa.

Forcibly, they have demanded for the body of the late novelist.

"Abubakar says he is reconciling but we are saying you will be alienating the Ogoni nation if you don't release to us the body of Ken Saro-Wiwa for a decent burial in Ogoniland," a MOSOP chieftain asserts.

Mr. Ken Saro-Wiwa who was hanged at the Port Harcourt Prison was believed to have been buried within the prison compound. "As long as his body is not lying in peace in Ogoniland, Ogoniland will remain restive," the MOSOP official adds.

In this season of war in the Niger-Delta, the Ogonis, this magazine gathered, are preparing to mount a huge campaign to have the body of Ken Saro-Wiwa exhumed and returned to his ancestral home-Ogoniland.

With various interests at play, analysts doubt that Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar would be bold enough to tackle headlong, the current crisis in the nation's oil-producing states, by addressing the fundamental demands and thorny issues that have been consistently raised over the years.

Chief among the consistent demands of the people in the oil-producing areas are a new revenue allocation formula based on derivation, development of social-economic infrastructure and the reclamation of devastated lands among others. "This money is made from the resources God has blessed this people with. God has a way of balancing things. He gave them the oil for a purpose, they are demanding greater involvement in the spending of the money and nothing is wrong with that," Femi Ojo, a petro- chemical engineer opines.

The oil-producing states currently are entitled to five per cent of the country's total oil earnings. But at the 1994 National Constitutional Conference, delegates from the Niger-Delta had argued for 50 per cent of the nation's oil wealth. This is, of course, was draft constitution that 13 per cent of oil earnings should go to the oil-producing states. The money, it was decided, would be released to the Oil Minerals Producing Areas Development Commission, (OMPADEC).

Indications, however, are that the Federal Government which has never been comfortable with the 13 per cent of oil earnings allocated to oil-producing areas would overturn this recommendation.

"The current vacillation on the 13 per cent meant for OMPADEC which is as a result of unnecessary pressures by the hawks is now causing trepidation.

Those who viewed the N19 billion allocation to OMPADEC from 1992 to December 1997 as big money should take a glance at CBN's reports," offers Maikphobi Okareme in a contribution to Vanguard newspaper's debate on the fate of the people of Niger-Delta.

"What is N19 billion allocated to OMPADEC in six full years compared to N125 billion in less than four years donated to Petroleum Trust Fund?" he queried.

Okareme threatens that "the centre shall not hold if the 13 per cent imbroglio is not resolved in favour of the oil-producing communities." This government's neglect, coupled with strong arm tactics to shut them up, more than anything else, over the years seems to have emboldened the oil companies in their less than sincere dealings with the communities in the Niger-Delta. "If the Nigerian government does not care for its people, what else do you expect from the oil companies. Neglect too," offers Lionel Jonathan, a lawyer and leader of the Nembe Youth Movement in Port Harcourt.

For instance, Shell is said to be particularly notorious for its history of pollution of the waters of the Niger-Delta. "Shell has recorded over a thousand oil spills in the oil-producing states since it commenced operation in Nigeria," Chief Eregbane reveals in a TEMPO interview. Agip, Mobil and Chevron have equally been blamed.

Sola Omole, Chevron's General Manager, Public Affairs, however, insists that this comp-any's environmental records are almost faultless. "We must admit that in our line of business, as in other lines of business, accidents can occur . . . However, if an accident occurs, we have the capability to deal with it quickly before it can impact on anybody negatively," he says in an interview with TheNEWS, a sister publication.

On its part, Shell blames the rage in the Niger-Delta on the Nigerian government.

Mrs. Precious Omuku, Shell's Corporate/External Relations/Manager in a paper she presented recently at a function, insists that Shell has done enough for the people of the Niger-Delta: "Our expenditure on community relations (in the Niger-Delta) rose with the increased demands.

From about $2 million in the 1960s, the figure rose to about $32 million in 1997.

Between 1992 and mid 1997, SPD (Shell) provided about 950 various projects in the Niger-Delta." The problem in the oil-producing areas, she continues, is twofold: "With the revenue distribution on the barrel of oil unchanged, how much of government's statutory responsibility can the oil companies take?" Many of the country's communities, she says, lack what should otherwise be basic socio-economic infrastructure.

"Since they (oil-producing areas) contribute most of the country's oil export earnings . . . they should not only have more visible government presence in terms of socio-economic development, but also have a larger share of revenue than the existing national revenue allocation formula allows them," the Shell image-maker opines.

But that is not the case.

The government and oil-producing giants such as Shell and Agip, continue to pass the buck.

In the last two months, Gen. Abub-akar has made efforts at easing tension in the Niger-Delta, but these token concessions do not seem enough appeasement to assuage their feelings of neglect and deprivation.

He has directed the military administrators of the nine oil-producing states to take over negotiations on behalf of aggrieved oil communities.

The directive, Aso Rock explained, is aimed at reducing friction between host communities and oil companies.

A high-powered Federal Government delegation headed by Flag Officer, Eastern Naval Command, Admiral Victor Mbu, recently visited the Niger-Delta on a fact-finding and peace initiative mission. The visit perhaps led to the restructuring administrator of OMPADEC.

Late last month, Gen. Abubakar ordered the withdrawal of military men from Ogoniland. The soldiers had invaded, occupied and unleashed mayhem on Ogoniland in 1993 in the wake of oil crisis there.

Colonel Dauda Komo, former military of Rivers State called the soldiers in Ogoniland Task Force on Internal Security, (TFIS). Gen. Abubakar equally ordered the release of the 21 Ogoni youths detained indefinitely by the Abacha regime. Yet, not many in the Niger-Delta are enticed by Abubakar's overtures. "We are tired of tokinistic overtures. We are fed up with frivolous promises by government. We are set for anything now if our demands are not met," Omare, the militant leader of Ijaw youths, threatens. But he is not alone.

Last weekend, the Niger-Delta people under the umbrella of the Niger-Delta Volunteer Force (NDVF) threatened to declare a Niger-Delta Republic if the Federal Government fail to drop "its plans to eject the Ijaws from their own property and land." The warning came on the wake of speculations that the Federal Government may have resorted to a military option to douse tension in the Niger-Delta.

As in the past during the Ogoni struggle when the military option failed, though it left many dead and several injured, it is destined to fail again.

This time, most of the militant oil-producing areas are only accessible by water not by land.

The youths, trained in the art of fighting like guerrillas in the swampy waters are deft at hiding under the waters before springing surprise attacks are certain to contain or defeat government troops.

Currently, the atmosphere is tense and the little battles may soon mature into full-blown wars and bitter confrontations.

Meanwhile, Nigeria continues to lose about N5 billion weekly from a sharp fall in production, a development, if not contained, is likely to plunge the nation into serious financial squeeze. The battle line is drawn and government must opt for dialogue and concrete actions before the oil-producing areas engulf in a full-blown war. Additional reports by Sunday Dare, Okafor Ofiebor, Tony Egbulefu, Ayodele Ale, Segun Olanrewaju, Yemi Tella and Friday Olokor.