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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tommaso who wrote (2171)10/16/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: Gwolf  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3339
 
Great minds think alike, I also have the BEARX which is still very profitable from the time I got in. I took a moment to review my Arch Crawford letter this morning, he indicated the maximum point of bearishness in this current run would be between Oct. 17-23 with another low point around the Oct. 30 area. So just for fun I called his office and asked if the rate hike had dimmed his views and they told me that it had not. His basic outlook is for a low on either of the 2 dates mentioned, he plans to cover shorts at that time for a strong and tradeable rally within a bear market. But that is all it will be is a rally in a bear market. I personally think it will be that rally that will do more damage in the long run,because to many people will think that we will have had 'the correction' and that all is well. Once the little people feel that way they will jump head long into the market without fear,while the big money sells into their buying, it was that very thing that did the most damage back in the '30's.

Gwolf



To: Tommaso who wrote (2171)10/16/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: Greg Jung  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3339
 
SI sentiment has gone from 2 to 3 Bull/bear, the Kahuna thread is rife with bulls***. In think the sentiment time scale has compressed to a week. It used to be two weeks for a sentiment shift. Now that the options (put) speculators have been wiped clean we'll get a downside move to clear out the call holders. This is what real "maximum pain" consists of. AG to the rescue which dealers do you suppose were so short the puts?

Greg