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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (903)	10/16/1998 6:38:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1722

>>I do not share Dark Side's apocalyptic views. Note that they can never be disconfirmed, even in theory. Because, if "the powers that be" succeed in postponing near-term calamity through their chicanery, that means that the eventual catastrophe will be all the greater -- and so on. Thus, the apocalypse hypothesis can never be disproven.<< I have no apocalyptic views. I have the view that if we stay on our present course we will get very poor results long term one way or the other. That course is not carved in cement. It can be changed at any time. The present path of intervention is a very poor one. Of course one cannot prove it, but one can look at the results of other countries that have taken the same path and then look at the results. Government intervention either direct or through central banks always fails in the long term. Market forces always win. >>Dark Side has made some good macro calls -- as with Russia. (However, I don't know that his predictions about New Zealand or South Africa have come to pass.)<< I made no predictions about either South Africa or New Zealand at all. I pointed them out as having high risk profiles. Thus they were both vulnerable and should be watched to determine the course of the crisis that was still in its early stages. Brazil is in a similar boat now. (which I also spoke about many months ago.) Since the time I pointed that out, the South African Rand was attacked, depreciated significantly and required multiple central bank intervention to stabilize it. The New Zealand currency also weakened significantly and the country still sports a significant current account deficit. Just setting the record straight. I never make macro predictions in my market views. I point out risks only.

To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (903)	10/16/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1722

>>GADR's "3rd Era" thesis is that mature free markets are becoming more stable over time, with favorable consequences for financial assets. Conversely, Dark Side believes that credit excesses and government-fiat money are making them less stable, with corresponding consequences.<< I gotta tell you Porc - if this is stability I'd hate to see what you consider volatile and unstable! Every major central banker, the president of the U.S., Alan Greenspan, many CEOs, The Financial Times, The Bank for International Settlements, multiple famous investors, various thoughtful magazines, (I could go on) have said that this is the biggest financial crisis in 50 years or since the 30's. The BIS has admitted that we were within hours of a global financial collapse at one point. Every article I read on Long Term Capital said that Greenspan got involved in the rescue plan because it could have brought down the whole system. Most of these people have a vested interest in being a calming influence. You gotta think that there are some really dangerous things happening. That doesn't mean we ARE going to blow up. But the world has just seen one full year and a half of financial turmoil like I have never seen in my lifetime. Many markets are down still 50%-70%, many currencies have collapsed, 30%-40% of the world is in recession or maybe somewhat worse, and we are not out of the woods yet. I'm not disputing many of the improvements in business and opportunity that you talk about, but surely this was one hell of a wild, unstable, and scary year. And surely almost all of it can be traced to credit, derivatives, currency abuse, etc..

To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (903)	10/20/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>	Respond to of 1722

Is a less-than-expected decline an upside surprise? "Chase Manhattan Net Drops" By PATRICIA LAMIELL AP Business Writer NEW YORK (AP) -- Chase Manhattan Corp. (NYSE:CMB - news) reported Tuesday that its third-quarter profits declined 15 percent, primarily as a result of turmoil in world financial markets. But Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC - news), having largely escaped the losses other banks are facing from volatile markets and financial crises abroad, reported a 20-percent increase in third-quarter earnings. Chase Manhattan Corp. Chase's net income for the three months ended Sept. 30 fell to $837 million, or 94 cents per share on a diluted basis, from $982 million, or $1.08, in the third quarter of 1997. Chase said its third-quarter results were hurt by ''difficult global market conditions.'' The nation's third-largest bank declared as uncollectible $200 million in loans, mostly reflecting recessionary conditions in Asia and the economic meltdown in Russia. Still, the results handily beat analysts' estimate of 77 cents per share, and Chase's stock was up $3 at $54.25 in late morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Many big U.S. banks are reporting large losses on investments in Asia and Russia, and investors and analysts are worried that the difficulties will spread to Latin America, where U.S. banks are even more exposed. Chase added $455 million to its loan-loss provision in the third quarter, substantially more than the $190 million it added in the third quarter of last year. Chase's total exposure to Asia including loans and trading of foreign exchange and derivatives was $21.5 billion, as of Sept. 30, down from $34 billion at Dec. 31, 1997. Lending and trading-related exposure to Russia was $200 million, down from $250 million from a year ago. Total Latin American exposure was $12.8 billion, down from $16.1 billion as of Dec. 31. The bank's net interest income was $2.21 billion, down from $2.07 billion. Noninterest income fell to $2.2 billion from $2.35 billion. Losses from failing hedge funds, risky, mostly unregulated investment funds, presented another challenge to banks at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. Chase said its exposure to hedge funds totaled $2.7 billion at Sept. 30, including loans, resale agreements, mark-to-market foreign exchange and derivatives contracts, and undrawn commitments to extend credit. Of the total exposure, Chase said $1.7 billion is secured by cash and treasury securities, about $700 million by other securities and about $300 million is unsecured. Chase made a $300 million investment in Long-Term Capital Management L.P., the Greenwich, Conn., hedge fund that was bailed out by financial institutions last month. For the first nine months of the year, Chase's net earnings declined to $2.64 billion, or $2.93 per diluted share, from $2.83 billion, or $3.04, a year ago. Wells Fargo & Co. Wells Fargo's net income rose to $347 million, or $3.99 per share on a diluted basis, from $290 million, or $3.87, a year ago. Wells, based in San Francisco, is the nation's eleventh-largest bank. It is set to merge next month with Norwest Corp. (NYSE:NOB - news) in Minneapolis, which last week reported a 15 percent increase in third-quarter earnings. The $28 billion merger will create the nation's seventh-largest bank with $188 billion in assets under management and operate under the Wells name. The results beat analysts' estimate of $3.39 per share, and Wells stock was up $11.25 at $378.75 in midday trading. Wells' net interest income was $1.15 billion in the latest third quarter, up from $1.13 billion a year ago. Noninterest income was $737 million, up from $677 million a year ago. A significant portion of the increase was due to service charges on deposit accounts and higher fees and commissions income. The bank declared uncollectible a total of $162 million in loans, down from $202 million a year ago. The largest category of net charge-offs for both periods was credit card loans. For the first nine months of the year, Wells earned $999 million, or $11.44 per share on a diluted basis, up from $857 million, or $9.28, a year ago.

To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (903)	10/20/1998 4:29:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1722

"Father Of The Internet" Jonathan Postel Dead At 55 LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Jonathan Postel, one of a handful of people who 30 years ago built the global computer network that is today's Internet, has died at the age of 55. Friends and colleagues of Postel said he died in a Santa Monica, Calif., hospital over the weekend from complications following surgery on a leaking heart valve. Postel, who was often called ''the father of the Internet,'' began his work linking computers back in the 1960s when he was a graduate student at the University of California at Los Angeles. As the Internet grew in recent years, he was instrumental in managing many of the increasingly complex technical details that helped keep online communications running relatively smoothly. He served as director of the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority and developed a complex number and naming system that matched popular Internet addresses with numerical addresses computers could read. The system effectively instructed computers where to route traffic and gave Internet users an easy way to log on to different Web sites. To non-technical people, Postal's work may have seemed mundane, but it was his attention to all the finer details of routing information through cyberspace that helped fuel the phenomenal growth of the network in recent years. Although when he began his work the Internet was a little- known network used mainly by academic types, he helped steer its evolution into a popular consumer device that was easy for almost anyone to use, even when they had little understanding of computers. ''Jon Postel was an important historical figure in the development of the Internet,'' one of his colleagues, Network Solutions Inc. (NSOL - news) Chief Executive Officer Gabe Battista, said in a statement. ''His work over the past decades played a significant part in the worldwide growth and development of the Internet as we know it today,'' he said. Postel remained active in Internet policy matters up until his hospitalization. As recently as a few weeks ago, he had submitted a plan to the Clinton administration for a new worldwide Internet address system.