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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7166)	10/16/1998 3:04:00 PM
From: Bosco	Respond to of 9980

Dear Zeev - we are more or less in agreement. Of course, there is also the Bosco's effect. It is the strangest thing: I ve begun my yearend tax loss selling 2 days ago by ejecting some of the small caps from my portfolio [seeing a grown man cry is not a pretty sight <sg>.] I am sure the increase in cash level in my portfolio has somehow tip off the Fed <VBG>. Seriously, Briefing.com has offered up another interesting spin from Meyer's maximin principle. In a nutshell, easing now to head off whatever is the least of all possible blunders. One can't really argue with that/ best, Bosco

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7166)	10/16/1998 3:41:00 PM
From: GTC Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Zeev, << but I am not sure I will like the beginning of next week >> Thought I'd throw out a possible (???) scenario for what is going on. I am reading an interesting book (Blood, Money, and Greed)which suggests that the "powers that be" are the banks which own the Fed, the IMF, etc. It claims that in 1929, the power brokers were quietly transferring their money out of the U.S. market while telling John Q. Public that everything was fine and the bull would continue running. Then, when they were out, they pulled away the props that were holding up the market and it crashed. Of course, they then bought up cheap shares and further increased their power. Could the same thing be happening here? Did the banks run up the market this week for options expiration in order to protect the MMs and possibly other hedge funds on the brink of collapse? With Nikkei threatening a new low on Thursday (Japan-time), it seems convenient for AG to announce the rate cut and shoot our market and Japan's back up. With today's volume, are "they" moving their last dollars out of the market? If so, Monday could be a rude awakening for the lemmings that flocked to ride the bull again. The technical indicators look great, but didn't they look pretty good right before the 1929 collapse? Will Monday be Whipsaw Monday??? If so, will Paula Jones be blamed? Disclaimer: I don't know much. Just enough to lose money in a raging bull market in 1997, only to get very bearish at the end of the year. The other shoe hasn't dropped yet, but if I live long enough, eventually the bear will come roaring back and my fears will be justified <GGG>. One final note: Yesterday I got my statement from Schwab with their newsletter telling me that the biggest danger I face is not a 30% drop in stock market, but INFLATION! I need to be fully invested or inflation will eat me alive! Over the past three months, my cash position has done quite well, thank you! With Mr. Bill in Washington, the Asian crisis, Y2K, Yassir Arafat, and the rest, inflation is not my immediate concern for the next year or two. But I have been wrong before !!! : ' ) Best wishes -- HB

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7166)	10/16/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Mark Ivan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Hi Zeev I am a new member, but have followed SI messages for well over a year. I started reading your messages over on the CYMI board (sad to say I've been long for over a year) and found them most insightful. I THANK YOU very much for the many messages you have posted which has helped me try and sort out the directions of the markets. Your statement: >>but I am not sure I will like the beginning of next week, >>which I think will be influenced from a dollar weakening too >>fast and thus declines in Asian markets, those turnips again Since the turnips have turned bullish, will use next week's predicted dips as buying opportunities?? I am still a little shaky about this whole thing and am wondering if Happy Bids theories will pan out. Thanks Mark