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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (30808)	10/16/1998 3:39:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Respond to of 95453

This is a great burst, no doubt about it. Just a note, however, to suggest that along with the long-term money flowing in, there is probably considerable mo-mo money and short covering. Traders be nimble. Mo-mo money can come out faster than it came in. Nobody went broke taking profits. (Long term holders just sit back and enjoy.)

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (30808)	10/16/1998 5:26:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<<Those who are waiting for crude to hit $17 before buying these stocks will miss the entire move.>> BINGO !!! George; this one sentence says it all. Quite simply; way too many people here are waiting for a impossible situation; $18 Oil and cheap Oilpatch stocks - WRONG. Can't happen - won't happen. Catching falling knives is quite another thing; I show the world my bloodied & scarred hands as proof from the infamous ''June Swoon.'' However; I learned through experience and the Sept 1 blowoff and especially this classic technical retest - for a double bottom; was the single most fundamentally conservative buying/entry point that can possibly exist. I could not understand the lack of confidence here... Not jumping in on full margin, not that we were going to our 52 week highs overnight; but folks - we had not Hoo-Do VooDoo Book Values here, we had realistic, below liquidation valuations in some stocks ! VTS - my primary example. When you combine sheer net asset liquidation values; along with no/low debt, $2-$4 EPS capacity, a PE of 3-4-5, a high tech market leading sub-sector niche and $100 Million in cash - with the ability to literally ride out a 2 year firestorm - VTS was and still is; a stock that I would bet everything I own on. Seriously; it was that cheap @ $10. Not that I would bet everything that I own on a stock , but if I had to- VTS would be my pick. Also; we did not go up for - ''no reason'' and it was nothing to do with the price of Oil today. These rate cuts will add liquidity and stimulate DEMAND ! Demand solves 1/2 of the Crude Price equation; OPEC hopefully solving the other half, - supply. The market recognized that the mechanisms were put in place by this rate cut to stimulate demand.... The market is buying today based upon the expectations of increased demand and corresponding increased Crude Oil prices in the near future. One can NOT wait for $17-18 Oil any longer to enter the oilpatch; this buying here displayed the huge pent up demand to buy this sector. There is still a ton of cash on the sidelines, yet to flow in. As Japan, Brazil and the Clinton Impeachment get resolved; we could see a confluence of simultaneous spiking crude prices, good earnings reports (especially with lowered expectation #'s) and the resolution of the International Financial Paniac, Japan could be showing positive signs etc.... this could play out into a repeat of the March to April/May run and corresponding price levels. Actually with a LaNina Winter - this is exactly what I expect. Without question, if one does not do ''some'' buying here - it could be real easy to miss the move... VTS up 60%, RON busting out, GLBL & VRC bouncing,,,,,etc. Still good valuations; but if you don't buy here - where will you in the future ? PS; I don't think this is a Bull Run here; not at all. I still think the entire market is now slighly overpriced in many sectors, the big caps at PE's of 30-40-50 are insane imho. I sold all my tech plays today, PMCS & VTSS bounced too strong imho. BRCM with a post IPO lockup and a secondary offering soon; is actually a good short candidate imho - God, I want this one bad, but in the mid $50's. Hey - those S&L's are busting a move ! .... and I am still holding my oilpatch fav's and neither ZEUS, Teddy nor Cubic Zirconia-breath could pry them from my greedy little hands <VBG> ....but, I will use some tight stops here.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (30808)	10/17/1998 3:13:00 AM
From: Paul Angell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

George, More good news. I read this in a research memo from Morgan Stanley. Oil price outlook positive. Supply side catalysts include: Strong OPEC compliance at 90% Output disruptions in US, Russia, Nigeria. Production shortfalls in Iran and Iraq. Other factors: Decline in demand has stabilized. World production to be flat over next 2Q's. Modest decline in 2Q99. Demand predicted to increase on average 2.4mmbpd over next 2 Q's. Consumption expected to exceed supply by 1.5mmbpd in 4Q98 and by 1.5mmbpd in 1Q99. Significant declines expected in inventories. Another OPEC cut of 0.5 - 0.7mmbpd expected and this would eliminate crude supply overhang. Upside to $17/bbl by year end. FY98 average $15.50/bbl. Paul. PS Keep your eye on APC, SII.