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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dushyant Narayen who wrote (34071)	10/17/1998 10:30:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

DN, Tech stock earnings were 90% disasters and 10% not as bad as expected after lowering expectations repeatedly. The rate cut will not do much to raise pc demand, especially since the new boxes add nothing new and you cannot make Y2K go away by lowering rates. We may see a rally in the chip related sector through Xmas, because this is a season of optimism, myopia and lying through their teeth at many pc related cos. But after that, the worldwide glut is still with us. And Xmas won't be. In general, there is no use playing puts on SRAM and graphics chip stock. They are not going below zero. And I can't see buying puts on the equipment cos. that are selling in single digits. But Novellus and AMAT are still way overpriced for any rational assessment of their futures. The MPC area looks to be getting tougher and tougher, though the only put play is Intel. I would wait until after the Xmas head fake for that one. The DSP cos., TXN is the most obvious choice. Motorola is running up again for no reason. Optimism dies hard with this declining co. The comm tech cycle sucks, the chip cycle sucks, their satellites are expensive earth digging equipment and folks still like this money loser. Not to worry. They will announce reorganization number 857 at the next news conference, writing off all their mistakes from last quarter. The gate array. made to order and Pld areas are the most vulnerable, with big cos. developing systems on a chip that eat into their market place. Xilinx remains my favorite, though I would hate Altera's slimy guts again if it hit the high 30s. Maxim and Linear Tech are also nice if they pop. I actually like Analog Devices, the technology leader in this area, but not at this point in the cycle. MB