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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patrick tang who wrote (15720)	10/16/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: uu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

It is really amazing how media makes nothing into a mountain and vise versa. I just read the following news flash on CBS news watch: 16:17 PRUDENTIAL'S ACAMPORA: WOULD LIKE TO SEE MARKET ENTHUSIASM 'SLOW DOWN' A BIT. It is as if Ralph Acampora is the father and god of the stock market and he wants his child to behave as he wants it to. And then CBS just has to go out of its way to announce that to the entier world!! Exactly what does one have to do to become like Ralph Acampora?!!! I really would like to know. Regards, Addi Jamshidi

To: patrick tang who wrote (15720)	10/16/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25814

Patrick: As usual a superior post: My reply: If I accuse Wilf of being a little arrogant in assuming that LSI could substantively outperform the semi market, than I too was wrong and just as arrogant. Wilf has never lacked for courage, and sadly he had never really had the opportunity to test his SOC vision in a bull market for chips. Despite this, he has kept his company running well above water and has positioned it to perform extremely well in the next upmove. Your perspective on the two “types” of Japanese players is superb, and it is obvious that there will be enormously constructive social and economic upheaval in the country over the next decade—for the long-term good of the country and the region. There is nothing in your post with which I disagree except for the near-term outlook for the US economy and LSI in particular. There are two problems on the horizon that I see. The first is the overall economy, which is clearly slowing in response to the slowing of the global economy, and LSI was among the first to feel the effect of the lessened infrastructure buildout that is no longer occurring at an accelerated rate. But the other issue is the problem with Y2K. Here is my scenario, and although I usually don't invoke anecdotal evidence I will this time. My best friend from childhood is Corporate Counsel for a major US company—unquestionably a Fortune 500 company. What technology investments is his company making in the coming year? Easy, Y2K. That means a lot of PCs etc, fixing the big boxes, and setting aside the infrastructure stuff. He is wired to other companies due the nature of his companies business, and it's the same elsewhere. In other words, I see a lot of growth for the Intels of the world, as small and large business try to become Y2K compliant in order to preserve their company, and I might add avoid litigation. This means that there will be a lot of accelerated buying of those products that are Y2K related, and this is not the strong suit of LSI. Given the fact that we are already decelerating, I can envision a scenario where we will have a market that soon anticipates a general slowdown and a tech market that will not reward LSI one iota. Thus, I don't see much short term hope for LSI over the next nine months. Beyond that, LSI is a truly superior investment, and I might add, at these price an outright steal for the investor with a three year outlook. One other issue, Patrick. Can you elaborate as to why adding capacity at Gresham (once it's open) will not take that much off of the bottom line? I am very interested as to how your model and/or experience in the business come to that conclusion. Regards Jock

To: patrick tang who wrote (15720)	10/16/1998 11:56:00 PM
From: Beachbumm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

The good part about Far East - things turn on a dime. e.g. HK real estate and stock market down 50% past 9 months. It can just go right back up in the next 9 months. Patrick, maybe I am just dense, but what on earth is your basis for this assertion? Japan's stock market peaked at 39,000 and now trades around 13,000 nine years later. Its property values have seen spectacular deflation. In Indonesia, an entire incipient middle class has been virtually destroyed. What would cause Hong Kong to just go right back up? Beachbumm