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To: diana g who wrote (2681)10/16/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Cesare J Marini  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3115
 
Also, If Asian economies are perceived to be on the road to recovery, money will flow from bonds to sectors which have been depressed by the Asian problems. RATL has been a relatively 'Safe Haven' from Asian woes (except for irrational market-wide sell-offs), so has less to gain from Asian recovery, so may be perceived to have less up-side potential than some others.

Not sure I agree with this. First, it's going to be some time before Asian stocks are perceived to be "on the road to recovery." Japan is only just now beginning to address its banking problem, and the threat of a Chinese devaluation of the yuan is still very possible. As long as there is that kind of uncertainty, a significant number of investors will shun the Asian markets.

RATL, however, demonstrates what good stocks demonstrate: steady, predictable earnings and good forward-looking stats. And as much of a "safe haven" as it has been, it's still way off of its highs, and is a "recovery" case in itself. I think the upside potential in RATL is quite appealing compared to Asia.

Joe



To: diana g who wrote (2681)10/19/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin  Respond to of 3115
 
Diana,

<< If Asian economies are perceived to be on the road to recovery, money will flow from bonds to sectors which have been depressed by the Asian problems. RATL has been a relatively 'Safe Haven' from Asian woes (except for irrational market-wide sell-offs), so has less to gain from Asian recovery,... >>

I think your thinking is reasonable and original. However, I think that RATL's market cap and stock float is too small to NOT be affected by even a relatively small number of new players coming into it because ot f the good story. I would expect that RATL will continue to be more influenced by co.-specific events than by any macro events. I think your above idea may well be true if you had to decide between owning a CCI or CMB vs. a MEL or First Union, for example.

Greetings :-)
Thomas