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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bwe who wrote (8747)	10/16/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: Dennis J.	Respond to of 34811

For those of you who think I jumped the gun with my bullishness yesterday, you have company. It was a judgement call, and hopefully it will prove out. (Also very uncomfortable sitting up there on the fence.) But consider the following from the folks at Princeton Economics. "The stock market is still vulnerable to a move to 6500 on the DOW or 844-757 on S&P Dec contract. Incidentally our Timing Models indicate Weekly Panic Cycles for most major currencies. This will likely impact the stock market.. In case you're wondering, a Panic Cycle is a model that tries to predict in advance the probability of an Outside Day (or a day when the range is greater than that of the previous day). We see Tuesday 10/20 and Friday 10/23 as the key days to watch next week. Panic Cycles do not indicate direction, but given that the market is rallying into this timeframe and given that we have a brick wall of 3 weekly bullish reversals at 1125.20 1127.90 1129.40 basis December contract, we believe the upside is limited. Do you really want to riska potential over 250 points down for a potential 50 points up??? Maybe you will want to hold off establishing a Short Position until you see more evidence of weakness, but you sure as heck don't want to be long going into next week. One broker told us that out of 350 clients he serves, not one person wished to move money from the stock market into the safety of a money market fund. NOT ONE! If you consider yourself contrarian (which of course everyone does), what does that tell you??? It tells me that the proverbial frog is happy in his jacuzzi even though the temperature has been rising since July 20th, 1998. It will take a lot of pain to cause the average investor to panic. The average investor,having been long the market for over 3 years, is nowhere near his pain threshold. Perhaps this will not be true for much longer. For a more detailed discussion on the vulnerabilities of the stock market see the new article on the web by our chairman, Martin Armstrong. Go to our web site: pei-intl.com "(end-of-quote)