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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (30823)	10/17/1998 12:13:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Papaya; even "Mo-Mo" moves have to have a catalyst...a reason ? Surely; your not saying this ''just happened.'' ? - Lemmings ? I think not; my preliminary info is that the bulk of Thursdays move was short covering... a short-squeeze paniac; off of the ''uniquely'' timed announcement of the Rate Cut. Volume was not huge on Thursday, but we did see good volume today, as the Street made a conservative, logical move - to be in front of the ''DEMAND'' curve. Nothing more - nothing less than that. I said a long time ago that short covering alone could boost us 15-20%. Crude Oil Prices are obviously the key to moving to substantially higher levels. Today's move was the Street's acknowledgement of simple Economic principal; in that adding liquidity and stimulus will increase demand. No overnight return to glory , but the end of a dramatic slide. That is just what makes this such a conservative play with strong upside. A floor was placed under the oilpatch - greatly eliminating the downside risk here; and guess what the Street did - they returned in droves. It wasn't that they didn't want to be here; it was that they did not know how to quantify the risk... Greenspan just simply eliminated much of the downside risk. We were way oversold fundamentally. I'm not saying we are going to get PE expansion back to 15-20 overnight for the drillers, nor are we going to 52 week highs or anything near, but we will get short covering and a major infusion of Institutional Money. That alone will create substantial gains. There is plenty of room left in many stocks - I see us returning to the peaks of the September highs, maybe building a little higher in selected oversold stocks. I don't think we'll see RON return to the low, low $20's again etc. A small retracement next week will not be any surprise either. But, we have established a floor under the market, a retest of the low's has held - and for me personally; being a bottom fisher and primarilly a long term oriented investor here; this allows me to accumulate stock here at these price levels confidently. No overnight return to Rig @ $60 or RON @ $70, but we can easilly see 20-30-50% moves in my opinion. A return to the April/May price levels is realistic if the Fed Cuts work over the next 6-9 months...and Crude moves to $17 + This is a good time to trade up in a ''stairstep'' fashion; as this is how I think the oilpatch will move. Take some profits off of each top, re-buy at the bottom of each established trading range as we keep moving forward, or simply buy here and hold.

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (30823)	10/17/1998 6:50:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

The latest from Martin Armstrong. He called the July market top to the day and STILL IS VERY BEARISH. Thank you for registering to our web site. No doubt many of you were encouraged when the FED unexpectedly lowered rates. The talking heads on CNBC and CNN have soothed many nerves, but because you took the time to register, we'd like to warn you that the worst may not yet be in. The stock market is still vulnerable to a move to 6500 on the DOW or 844-757 on S&P Dec contract. Incidentally our Timing Models indicate Weekly Panic Cycles for most major currencies. This will likely impact the stock market.. In case you're wondering, a Panic Cycle is a model that tries to predict in advance the probability of an Outside Day (or a day when the range is greater than that of the previous day). We see Tuesday 10/20 and Friday 10/23 as the key days to watch next week. Panic Cycles do not indicate direction, but given that the market is rallying into this timeframe and given that we have a brick wall of 3 weekly bullish reversals at 1125.20 1127.90 1129.40 basis December contract, we believe the upside is limited. Do you really want to riska potential over 250 points down for a potential 50 points up??? Maybe you will want to hold off establishing a Short Postion until you see more evidence of weakness, but you sure as heck don't want to be long going into next week. One broker told us that out of 350 clients he serves, not one person wished to move money from the stock market into the safefty of a money market fund. NOT ONE! If you consider yourself contrarian (which of course everyone does), what does that tell you??? It tells me that the proverbial frog is happy in his jacuzzi even though the temprerature has been rising since July 20th, 1998. It will take a lot of pain to cause the average investor to panic. The average investor,having been long the market for over 3 years, is nowhere near his pain threshold. Perhaps this will not be true for much longer. For a more detailed discussion on the vulnerabilities of the stock market see the new article on the web by our chairman, Martin Armstrong. Go to our web site: