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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tomato who wrote (426)10/18/1998 12:44:00 AM
From: James Clarke  Respond to of 4691
 
Another number you want to keep in mind is this. 9-11%. At the current level of interest rates, that is the minimum level of Return on Equity required of a business to be making money in an economic sense. Because that is the Cost of Equity. It is very difficult to see that equity has a cost. (Me included - I was an investment banker for 4 years without really understanding this concept - scary, right. Only when I started thinking about investing from the investor's perspective did I get it.) It is easy to understand the cost of Debt because you have to pay interest every year, but equity you just have to pay the dividend yield. So the cost of that equity is a very difficult concept for many investors and for many managements. You have to use the economic concept of opportunity cost - where could I earn on that equity capital if I invested it in another business with similar risk. Under that logic, the cost of equity becomes clearer.

Why is the Cost of Equity important? Because if you are not earning that level of ROE over a cycle, you are destroying wealth. Remember what the denominator of ROE is - book value. So mathematically, if a business cannot earn its cost of equity, the stock should trade below book value even if the company is profitable. If you pay more than book value for a stock, you're betting that the company can earn more than its cost of equity. Very few investors get this - I get so frustrated when value investors say a stock is cheap at 1.5x book value when it can't earn its cost of capital. Yeah, it has a lower price/book ratio than companies that can...but it should. All these ratios are interrelated.

But the bottom line is this. When I am interviewing a CEO and he tells me he is making money, but those profits are only 5% on equity, I get very hostile and tell him he is destroying wealth. Because if that capital could be invested somewhere else for a 10% return, then every year he makes 5% on that capital is destruction of wealth, despite the fact that the company makes a profit. I take great pleasure in beating up executives who fail to understand this concept, and their stocks almost inevitably drop in the long run (usually the short run). REITs are the most recent example of managements who thought their cost of capital equaled their dividend yield.

JJC