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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (1689)10/17/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
What environmental change must take place before the situation changes from 'depressed prices' to 'buying opportunity' in small caps? Recession? Really?

Interesting you ask that! I just posted that question:

"For the year, the DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq are up 6.4%,
8.9% and 3.2% respectively. Exceptional value remains
in the Russell 2000 index which is down 21.5% for the
year. The big question for investors is "when will
money start to flow from the favorite large cap stocks
and into smaller capitalization stocks that compose the
Russell 2000 Small Cap Index?"

(full article at suite101.com )

Maybe the small caps will have to start paying out dividends once they are stuck in p/e range of 7? Or... just stay at a p/e of 7 and continue to grow faster than large caps and use earnings growth to outperform.

Maybe the variable that needs to change is indexing? When all the stock market money is in the 500 largest companies, then numbers 501 to infinity will be worth nothing and have a p/e of near zero. Expand the argument to the Wilshire 5000 if you like.

I don't see an easy answer but the corner dry cleaner might make the owners very rich relative to the neighborhood, but you probably won't see 20th Century Ultra or Fido Magellan buying the little mom n pop shop or the shop making it into the Wilshire5000.

Amazing the discrepency between the Russell2000 and the S&P500