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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7190)	10/18/1998 4:28:00 AM
From: space cadet	Respond to of 9980

Hi Zeev, I basically agree with your outlook. Like you, I admire Greenspan and think he is as good as it gets, in terms of smart bankers. That's one reason we may be at a peak, I can't imagine anyone who replaces him would be in his league, and just imagine if it were some politically correct nanny correct moron which have filled the Clinton administration (Can you say Donna Shalala?;). But I didn't understand or agree with your pessimistic outlook over the next week or two. Msft is releasing its earnings on Tues and we are smack in the middle of earnings season. So I see stocks heading higher at least on Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably for the week as a whole. At the end of the month would be a more likely time for a correction, in my opinion. I don't think much will happen overseas to change things in this time scale. It looks like we will test 8600-8700 at least before any substantial correction take places. If the market can't rally this week after msft beats its numbers then something is definitely wrong and we won't rally later. That's my opinion at least. I agree that the downside is probably capped at 7900-8000 for now, unless some unexpectedly bad news happens, probably related to banks, hedge funds, or asia. Given the kind of year it's been it's not out of the question that it could happen. I am sure Greenspan will be lowering the rate for a while now. Should be extremely interesting to see how Oct plays out from here, but I think we go up at least 300 points before any correction.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7190)	10/18/1998 11:49:00 AM
From: Tundra	Respond to of 9980

Zeev, I used to be a big fan of Greenspan; whatever ones view, it is difficult to doubt his intellect. I would argue, however, for a variety of reasons that he was somewhat behind the curve this time around. I do think that you enunciate the alternative position quite well. In any event, it is likely not appropriate for us to detail too much of our arguments in this regard in this (the Asia) forum. I plead guilty, however, in earlier asking you to provide additional clarification of your views in this regard. You did so; and I now better understand your position. Thank you. Regards, Tundra