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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (31842)	10/17/1998 12:48:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 94695

Haim: Thought provoking post, as usual! Regards, LG

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (31842)	10/17/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Haim, Excellent post. I'm also amazed how the markets can move higher with the current global crisis. I tend to agree with your very well written post. Yet, the only problem I have, and not with what you say, is that calling the market a bear or a bull market actually gets in the way of our our observations about immediate market behavior itself. The diagnosis of bull or bear seems to contaminate the clarity of our market perceptions. This is not you, everyone falls into that mental set, and then it unfortunately distorts our judgements and prevails over our market decisions. This is just my observation after reading so many posts over the past couple of years. I think we need to see these markets for what they are, a two way street, and forget about the labels. I don't think either or any label is necessary. GZ

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (31842)	10/17/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Haim, The market's strong response to Thursday's rate cuts is not convincing enough for me to go hog wild buying stocks again. For me, cash is still king, good for nibbling here and there and take the quick profits they will give me. I feel quite strange to take this stand, watching this bull train leave the station and still feel good to be left behind. I had been extremely optimistic with long term holds for the last 15 years, and was on big buying spree on the day after the waterfall Monday '87. I went through many articles and news to change my outlook and to get bullish again. I worry about many unresolved issues mentioned in the following articles I read today. " .... Nick Knight, head strategist at Nomura International in London, warns that "anything could happen. The one good thing to come from this is that (market) forecasting will probably stop forever. Forecasting is absurd in these markets. ..." cnnfn.com " ... And even though Wall Street is celebrating the Federal Reserve's action to cut short-term interest rates Thursday, it is choosing not to look at the fears that led to the rate cut in the first place. "Greenspan himself was pretty well aware that the conditions had changed and that a more aggressive or more friendly posture was needed on the part of the Fed," said Marc Wanshel, an economist with J.P. Morgan. ... " cnnfn.com " ... European markets have undergone a dramatic beating over the past several months, but market professionals say the surprises aren't over yet. The bears are out in force in Europe, and few professional investors see much relief in sight. Even those who anticipate a better showing in Europe over the next 18 months say the rest of 1998 is pretty much a bust. ..." cnnfn.com " ... ''This buys Brazil a little bit of time,'' said Ricardo Daud, a fund manager at Bansud bank in Buenos Aires. ''For Brazil it's good because a calmer international market gives the Brazilian government more time to prepare its adjustment,'' said Paulo Pereira Miguel, chief economist at Brazil's Banco Boavista. ..." biz.yahoo.com " ... The cuts in interest rates, which came out of left field and sent stocks soaring, merely underscored the seriousness of the problems facing the global economy, as well as the need for quick action to control the damage to the United States, analysts said. ''Nothing has changed significantly in the global economic environment since the market topped out in July and went into a tailspin, and yet, this market is still straight up in the air,'' said Richard Smiley, chief executive officer of Union Bank of California Investment Services. ..." biz.yahoo.com " ... With financial markets around the globe in turmoil, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich said on Friday the Republican-led Congress now had little choice but to replenish International Monetary Fund reserves. ''I am not sure this is a very good time to take a big gigantic gamble with the world economy,'' the Georgia Republican told lawmakers on the House floor, explaining why Republicans had reversed course on the issue. ..." biz.yahoo.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (31842)	10/17/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Haim: My fundamental view of the world is nearly identical to yours. In one of my notes, I admitted that I may have been suckered into a bear market rally. I will be watching this week for that. If I see the market falling apart, I will cash out with nice profits. If we have a weak decline I will add to my long position. I did the same in January. For me to believe that we turned a corner, several trends will have to be broken in the minor indices soon. The SOX reached an important point and backed off. The TRAN is about 150 points from an important point. The INX is closing in on one. The RUT is about 30 or 40 points away. The movement in the DJI is promising. I have no idea what will happen on Monday, Tuesday, or any day. However, I expect that my daily reading of the market will keep me out of trouble and in profits. It has done that for 30 years. Over the past 10 days, I expected a market collapse, realized that my expectations were not occurring, sold my puts for profits at the bottom of the move, identified the next move up for myself, and went long. All of this was posted to this thread. I am prepared to move back into the bear camp within three days if my current expectations do not pan out. Those expectations include a weak or flat reaction to this rally ending by Tuesday or Wednesday and then a further move up. If this does not happen, I will be out of the market waiting for my next read. Right now all I see is up. However, by 10:30 AM on Monday I could very well be a bear again. At any rate, I am enjoying my new friendships in the barnyard. Being a bear is a lonely existence.