To: Ms. Baby Boomer who wrote (816 ) 10/17/1998 2:03:00 PM From: Len Giammetta Read Replies (1) | Respond to
<That depends on what chart you're looking at.> Maria, you're absolutely correct. Unfortunately, Neuro works best with a minimum of 2 yrs of historical data, and as you know NEWZ has less than a year. I attempted models with just NEWZ data, but they failed to have predictive value. I was getting some good prediction with another NN, NGO, but downloading and the preprocessing of data had to be manually and it eventually became too time consuming to continue. I can justify using the 3 yr charts that are available because IMO the same factors that had influenced both DTOP and INDV are probably influencing the activity of NEWZ. However that's only my theory and I may be way off base. This could account for so many of the disappoinmnents I've had with prior models. I also assume that many of the MM's that held DTP and INDV also have an inventory of NEWZ. There's no arguing that NEWZ is a new stock, but there may be more similarities than meets the eye. If you can think of better data to use in my model I sincerely invite your suggestions. My goal is to get an accurate net that has reliable predictive value. I think I'm on the right track with my most current model.Subject 22441
