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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Murphy who wrote (1643)	10/18/1998 2:15:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81057

Bill I'm a monetarist, as such I follow the wisdom of the man whom over look the STREET {I don't agree always with Greenspan}. Wisdom came down on OCT 15 that the FED rates, discount rate, be lowered. And so it was written. Money sets the price on GOLD, not gold on money. I grant you that you did say 125 yen before 150. As I too have made many a predictions, some long some short. But yet he who has wisdom realize that the Oracle of Wall Street, set the price of Gold. He controls it. It is possible to increase liquidity, without increasing M2. And it is M2 which ultimately leads to higher Gold price. And it is the rate of M2 the mitigates growth. And it growth that lowers the price of Gold, by raising the US Dollar. How are the shorts of gold set to large to cover? This has been bounced around for more time, than I can remember, that there is this massive amount of GOLD shorted out there. Let's assume that 10,000 tons of the stuff is shorted. Does that mean it needs to be covered? And if it did, wouldn't you expect that the hedge funds would've been on this years ago, pushing it to the breaking point. In many people opinions, a $50 increase in gold spot is all that is necessary. Yet, no it doesn't happen. Maybe Gold is still overvalued? 1) How much of this gold is actually shorted by producers, against further production? 2) How much of this gold is shorted against positions that can be paid back in US Dollar terms? 3) How much of this gold is actually covered by other derivative investment such as calls, options etc.... 4) How much is actually covered in physical commodity and is only shorted in price in futures markets? 5) How much is actually considered excess, when the USD falls relative to the Mark or YEN? On August 7, 1998 I said that the XAU was going to have a blowout below 52{?} within weeks of that date.... and it did. So why did it happen? Gold is the easiest of currencies to speculate on. Many try to give to it, something that doesn't exist. Gold is not effected by monetary supply or excess demand. It's a commodity, and like any commodity has it's valuation determined by all other currencies. You said:"If you know what I know, you say it acts great, and the pressure cooker is building." Please do tell. If you know what I know, and anyone reading a financial statement from one of the producers, you'd say gold is well on it's way down. And that the most recent climb is Soley due to the US dollar demise. And that is due to the MARK & the YEN. And as such you'd due what I did friday, and option down on the gold hedgers. For when the Oracle increases liquidity, and the M2 doesn't expand, the price of Gold will fall. What proof would you need? PS: Gold does have a time and a place. I never tell people when I'm long, cause I like playing the short game. It's easier to know when something is overvalued, because undervalued doesn't mean it will go up. There is no conspiracy to keep gold down.